TXT Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-28

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
TXT Report Total Revenue IN-LINE pred ~$3.80B vs. cons $3.83B MEDIUM
TXT Report Adjusted EPS MISS pred ~$1.51 vs. cons $1.54 MEDIUM
TXT Report Textron Aviation Segment Profit MISS pred ~$172M vs. cons $185M MEDIUM
TXT Guide FY2026 Adjusted EPS Guidance UNCHANGED guide ~$6.50 (midpoint, reaffirmed $6.40-$6.60) vs. cons $6.51 (FY2026) MEDIUM
TXT Guide FY2026 Manufacturing Cash Flow (pre-pension) UNCHANGED guide ~$750M (midpoint, reaffirmed $700-800M) vs. cons $760M (FY2026) LOW
TXT Guide Industrial Separation Timeline/Process UNKNOWN guide ~12-18 months (sale or tax-free spin, unchanged) vs. cons 12-18 months (through mid-2027) LOW
TXT Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -1.4% MEDIUM
TXT Return 5-day cumulative residual -1.1% (STABILIZE) With a 0% Earnings ESP heading in, a modest EPS/Aviation-margin miss is largely pre-anticipated rather than a fresh negative surprise, limiting the scope for aggressive downward estimate revisions. Reaffirmed FY2026 EPS and cash-flow guidance (unchanged ranges) removes the main out-period cut risk that would otherwise compound a day-1 selloff, while ongoing separation-process optionality and MV-75/backlog strength provide offsetting positive catalysts that analysts will weigh against the soft print, keeping the stock's idiosyncratic drift roughly flat rather than accelerating lower over the week. MEDIUM