UPS Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-28

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
UPS Report Q2 2026 Adjusted EPS BEAT pred ~$1.70 vs. cons $1.65 MEDIUM
UPS Report Q2 2026 Consolidated Revenue IN-LINE pred ~$22.0B vs. cons $21.80B MEDIUM
UPS Report U.S. Domestic Segment Operating Margin MISS pred ~7.6% vs. cons/guide midpoint ~8.0% MEDIUM
UPS Guide FY2026 Revenue Guidance UNCHANGED guide ~$89.7B vs. cons $89.9B (FY2026) MEDIUM
UPS Guide FY2026 Diluted EPS Guidance LOWER guide ~$6.75 (flat to 2025) vs. cons $6.85 (FY2026) MEDIUM
UPS Guide Q3 2026 U.S. Domestic Operating Margin Outlook UNKNOWN guide ~8.5-9.5% vs. cons ~9.0% (Q3 2026) LOW
UPS Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -1.5% MEDIUM
UPS Return 5-day cumulative residual -2.7% (FADE) Even with a modest headline EPS/revenue beat, the critical U.S. Domestic margin likely lands short of the guided 7.5-8.5% range, undercutting the 'inflection is real' thesis after the stock's run to $117. That, combined with cautious commentary on Europe de minimis elimination and the August 1 Teamsters wage step-up, should trigger sell-side trims to H2/2027 EPS even after any initial optics-driven bounce, causing an initial move to fade over the following days as analysts reconcile segment-level guidance against the print. MEDIUM