UPS Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-28

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
UPS Report Adjusted EPS BEAT pred ~$1.70 vs. cons $1.65 MEDIUM
UPS Report Revenue IN-LINE pred ~$21.85B vs. cons $21.68B MEDIUM
UPS Report U.S. Domestic adjusted operating margin BEAT pred ~8.2% vs. cons 8.0% MEDIUM
UPS Guide Revenue LOWER guide ~$89.7B vs. cons $90.3B (FY2026) HIGH
UPS Guide Adjusted operating margin UNCHANGED guide ~9.6% vs. cons 9.6% (FY2026) MEDIUM
UPS Guide Adjusted EPS BETTER guide ~$7.16 vs. cons $7.10 (FY2026) MEDIUM
UPS Guide Free cash flow UNCHANGED guide ~$5.5B vs. cons $5.5B (FY2026) MEDIUM
UPS Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +2.6% MEDIUM
UPS Return 5-day cumulative residual +1.1% (FADE) Day-1 residual of ~+2.6% fades to a ~+1.1% five-day residual: domestic-margin execution supports the initial move, but an unchanged ~$89.7B FY2026 revenue guide versus ~$90.3B consensus implies softer second-half revenue math and limits positive estimate revisions. MEDIUM