V Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-28

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
V Report Net revenue (FQ3'26, adj/GAAP) BEAT pred ~$11.50B vs. cons ~$11.36B MEDIUM
V Report Non-GAAP diluted EPS (FQ3'26) BEAT pred ~$3.28 vs. cons ~$3.23 MEDIUM
V Report Cross-border volume ex-intra-Europe growth (cst.$, FQ3'26) BEAT pred ~11.5% vs. cons ~9.5% LOW
V Guide Q4 FY2026 net revenue growth (adj., cst.$) BETTER guide ~12% vs. cons ~11.3% (Q4 FY2026, Jul-Sep 2026) MEDIUM
V Guide FY2026 full-year non-GAAP EPS growth (adj.) LOWER guide ~13% vs. cons ~14.3% (FY2026 full year) MEDIUM
V Guide VAS+CMS combined revenue growth normalization commentary LOWER guide ~18-20% vs. recent run-rate/Street ~25% (FY2026 2H/Q4 outlook) LOW
V Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.8% MEDIUM
V Return 5-day cumulative residual -2.0% (FADE) Setup mirrors last quarter's blowout: stock is up ~17% into the print and near highs, so a headline revenue/EPS beat is likely already substantially priced in, and management's own commentary (mid-to-high single-digit EPS growth guide, explicit 'don't extrapolate' language on CMS/VAS one-time items, FIFA lapping into Q4) gives sell-side cover to trim out-quarter (Q4/FY27) estimates even after a Q3 beat. After the April 29 Q2 beat, V popped ~8% on day one but gave back nearly all of it within the next 5 trading days (334.86->318.80, underperforming a rising SPY) as investors digested the guided deceleration and one-time-item caveats; the same implicit-cut dynamic (full-year EPS guide of ~13% sits below Street's ~14.3%, and CMS/VAS growth is being walked back from 24-27% toward high-teens/20%) should again pull estimates and the stock back down over the following week even if the print itself beats. MEDIUM