VICI Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-29

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
VICI Report Q2 AFFO / share IN-LINE pred ~$0.62 vs. cons $0.62 HIGH
VICI Report Total revenue IN-LINE pred ~$1.05B vs. cons $1.05B MEDIUM
VICI Report AFFO ($M) IN-LINE pred ~$672M vs. cons $670M MEDIUM
VICI Guide FY2026 AFFO / share guide BETTER guide ~$2.45-$2.48 (mid $2.465) vs. cons $2.46 (FY2026) MEDIUM
VICI Guide FY2026 AFFO ($M) guide BETTER guide ~$2,675-$2,705M (mid $2,690M) vs. cons $2,685M (FY2026) MEDIUM
VICI Guide Caesars rent coverage / tenant-credit commentary (Fertitta take-private) UNCHANGED pred coverage ~1.9x vs. prior ~1.9x (Q2 master leases) MEDIUM
VICI Guide 2026 refi hedge coverage / expected refi rate UNKNOWN pred ~$500M+ swaps hedged vs. $1.75B notes maturing at ~4.4% avg (2026 maturities) LOW
VICI Guide Net debt / EBITDA leverage UNCHANGED pred ~5.0x vs. target 5.0-5.5x (Q2 2026) HIGH
VICI Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +0.5% LOW
VICI Return 5-day cumulative residual -0.5% (STABILIZE) Triple-net rent makes AFFO print essentially in-line with the raised guide, and any FY bump is marginal (Golden already embedded, Gamehost small), so there are no material estimate revisions in either direction. With no out-period math to drive follow-through, the idiosyncratic component drifts near zero; the dominant swing factors — the live 7/29 Fed decision and Caesars/Fertitta credit sentiment — are macro/beta rather than stock-specific, so residual return stabilizes around flat with a slight fade bias if commentary on Las Vegas coverage is cautious. LOW