{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 AFFO / share",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$0.62 vs. cons $0.62",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Total revenue",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.05B vs. cons $1.05B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "AFFO ($M)",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$672M vs. cons $670M",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 AFFO / share guide",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$2.45-$2.48 (mid $2.465) vs. cons $2.46 (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 AFFO ($M) guide",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$2,675-$2,705M (mid $2,690M) vs. cons $2,685M (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Caesars rent coverage / tenant-credit commentary (Fertitta take-private)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "pred coverage ~1.9x vs. prior ~1.9x (Q2 master leases)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "2026 refi hedge coverage / expected refi rate",
      "prediction": "UNKNOWN",
      "answer": "pred ~$500M+ swaps hedged vs. $1.75B notes maturing at ~4.4% avg (2026 maturities)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Net debt / EBITDA leverage",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "pred ~5.0x vs. target 5.0-5.5x (Q2 2026)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 0.5,
  "day1_confidence": "LOW",
  "day5_residual_pct": -0.5,
  "day5_path": "STABILIZE",
  "day5_rationale": "Triple-net rent makes AFFO print essentially in-line with the raised guide, and any FY bump is marginal (Golden already embedded, Gamehost small), so there are no material estimate revisions in either direction. With no out-period math to drive follow-through, the idiosyncratic component drifts near zero; the dominant swing factors \u2014 the live 7/29 Fed decision and Caesars/Fertitta credit sentiment \u2014 are macro/beta rather than stock-specific, so residual return stabilizes around flat with a slight fade bias if commentary on Las Vegas coverage is cautious.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}