| VLO |
Report |
Adjusted EPS (Q2'26) |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$8.90 vs. cons ~$8.80 |
MEDIUM |
| VLO |
Report |
Refining margin/bbl (capture on QTD ~$30 GC indicator) |
MISS |
pred ~$22.0/bbl vs. cons ~$23.2/bbl |
MEDIUM |
| VLO |
Report |
Total refining throughput |
IN-LINE |
pred ~2.79 MMbpd vs. cons ~2.80 MMbpd |
MEDIUM |
| VLO |
Guide |
Q3'26 refining throughput guide (Port Arthur recovery + St. Charles FCC startup) |
BETTER |
guide ~2.90 MMbpd vs. cons ~2.83 MMbpd (Q3'26) |
LOW |
| VLO |
Guide |
Buyback pace off new $5B authorization |
BETTER |
guide ~$1.5B/qtr vs. cons ~$1.0B/qtr (Q3'26) |
MEDIUM |
| VLO |
Guide |
Refining cash opex |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$4.85/bbl vs. cons ~$4.80/bbl (Q2'26) |
MEDIUM |
| VLO |
Guide |
Renewable Diesel volumes / 2026 outlook |
BETTER |
guide ~320M gal vs. cons ~310M gal (Q2'26) |
LOW |
| VLO |
Guide |
Forward margin durability (Hormuz still shut, oil >$85) |
BETTER |
guide GC indicator ~$25/bbl vs. cons ~$21/bbl (Q3'26) |
LOW |
| VLO |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-3.0% |
— |
LOW |
| VLO |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-1.5% (STABILIZE) |
Day 1 likely a mild sell-the-news: EPS is explosive y/y but priced in after an ~83% YTD run to all-time highs, and realized capture probably lags the sky-high ~$30 GC indicator due to steep backwardation and the Port Arthur diesel-hydrotreater outage — a capture MISS is the tell that overrides a headline beat. Over 5 days it stabilizes rather than fades hard: the still-shut Strait of Hormuz and oil surging >$85 on renewed escalation keep out-period cracks elevated, so Q3/2026 estimates hold or get revised up (not cut) even after the print, and the new $5B buyback provides a bid. Stretched peak-margin valuation caps any bounce, leaving a small negative residual. |
LOW |