{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EPS (Q2'26)",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$8.90 vs. cons ~$8.80",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Refining margin/bbl (capture on QTD ~$30 GC indicator)",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$22.0/bbl vs. cons ~$23.2/bbl",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Total refining throughput",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~2.79 MMbpd vs. cons ~2.80 MMbpd",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Q3'26 refining throughput guide (Port Arthur recovery + St. Charles FCC startup)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~2.90 MMbpd vs. cons ~2.83 MMbpd (Q3'26)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Buyback pace off new $5B authorization",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$1.5B/qtr vs. cons ~$1.0B/qtr (Q3'26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Refining cash opex",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$4.85/bbl vs. cons ~$4.80/bbl (Q2'26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Renewable Diesel volumes / 2026 outlook",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~320M gal vs. cons ~310M gal (Q2'26)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Forward margin durability (Hormuz still shut, oil >$85)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide GC indicator ~$25/bbl vs. cons ~$21/bbl (Q3'26)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -3.0,
  "day1_confidence": "LOW",
  "day5_residual_pct": -1.5,
  "day5_path": "STABILIZE",
  "day5_rationale": "Day 1 likely a mild sell-the-news: EPS is explosive y/y but priced in after an ~83% YTD run to all-time highs, and realized capture probably lags the sky-high ~$30 GC indicator due to steep backwardation and the Port Arthur diesel-hydrotreater outage \u2014 a capture MISS is the tell that overrides a headline beat. Over 5 days it stabilizes rather than fades hard: the still-shut Strait of Hormuz and oil surging >$85 on renewed escalation keep out-period cracks elevated, so Q3/2026 estimates hold or get revised up (not cut) even after the print, and the new $5B buyback provides a bid. Stretched peak-margin valuation caps any bounce, leaving a small negative residual.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}