| VLO |
Report |
Adjusted Diluted EPS |
BEAT |
pred ~$11.10 vs. cons $9.98 |
MEDIUM |
| VLO |
Report |
Refining margin per barrel of throughput |
BEAT |
pred ~$22.60 vs. cons $21.70 |
MEDIUM |
| VLO |
Report |
Total refining throughput (mb/d) |
MISS |
pred ~2.84 vs. cons 2.91 |
MEDIUM |
| VLO |
Guide |
Q3 2026 refining throughput guidance (mb/d, total system) |
LOWER |
guide ~2.90 vs. cons 2.96 (Q3 2026) |
MEDIUM |
| VLO |
Guide |
Q3 2026 implied refining margin/capture outlook |
LOWER |
guide ~$17.00 vs. cons $18.50 (Q3 2026) |
LOW |
| VLO |
Guide |
FY2026 capital spending guidance |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$2.10B vs. cons $2.10B (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| VLO |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-1.5% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| VLO |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-4.0% (FADE) |
Analogous to Q1 2026 (huge 34-37% EPS beat produced only a flat/slightly negative day-1 residual, then a further ~2.5% idiosyncratic slide the next session as the rally faded), expectations are now even more stretched (stock near ATH, EPS estimates revised 30-60% higher in 30 days, FY2027 consensus already ~30% below FY2026, signaling the Street views the cycle as peaking). Continued Port Arthur diesel/kerosene hydrotreater downtime, Benicia-driven West Coast throughput cuts, and crude backwardation squeezing capture create real risk that headline crack-spread strength doesn't fully convert to guidance upside, prompting sell-side to trim out-period (Q3/Q4) numbers even after a Q2 beat — consistent with a FADE rather than follow-through. |
MEDIUM |