{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted Diluted EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$11.10 vs. cons $9.98",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Refining margin per barrel of throughput",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$22.60 vs. cons $21.70",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Total refining throughput (mb/d)",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~2.84 vs. cons 2.91",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Q3 2026 refining throughput guidance (mb/d, total system)",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~2.90 vs. cons 2.96 (Q3 2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q3 2026 implied refining margin/capture outlook",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~$17.00 vs. cons $18.50 (Q3 2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 capital spending guidance",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$2.10B vs. cons $2.10B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -1.5,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -4.0,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Analogous to Q1 2026 (huge 34-37% EPS beat produced only a flat/slightly negative day-1 residual, then a further ~2.5% idiosyncratic slide the next session as the rally faded), expectations are now even more stretched (stock near ATH, EPS estimates revised 30-60% higher in 30 days, FY2027 consensus already ~30% below FY2026, signaling the Street views the cycle as peaking). Continued Port Arthur diesel/kerosene hydrotreater downtime, Benicia-driven West Coast throughput cuts, and crude backwardation squeezing capture create real risk that headline crack-spread strength doesn't fully convert to guidance upside, prompting sell-side to trim out-period (Q3/Q4) numbers even after a Q2 beat \u2014 consistent with a FADE rather than follow-through.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}