VLO Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-30

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
VLO Report Adjusted EPS BEAT pred ~$9.35 vs. cons $9.05 MEDIUM
VLO Report Refining adjusted operating income per barrel BEAT pred ~$17.10/bbl vs. cons $16.55/bbl MEDIUM
VLO Report Renewable Diesel operating income MISS pred ~$155M vs. cons $180M MEDIUM
VLO Guide 3Q26 total refining throughput LOWER guide ~2.84 MMBbl/d vs. cons 2.90 MMBbl/d (3Q26) MEDIUM
VLO Guide 3Q26 refining cash operating expense BETTER guide ~$4.75/bbl vs. cons $4.82/bbl (3Q26) MEDIUM
VLO Guide Port Arthur diesel-hydrotreater recovery / Gulf Coast utilization LOWER guide ~1.73 MMBbl/d Gulf Coast throughput vs. cons 1.78 MMBbl/d (4Q26) LOW
VLO Guide Share repurchases BETTER guide ~$1.25B of repurchases vs. cons $1.05B (3Q26) MEDIUM
VLO Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.8% MEDIUM
VLO Return 5-day cumulative residual -2.5% (FADE) The ~$9.35 EPS beat versus $9.05 consensus and ~$17.10/bbl refining capture versus $16.55/bbl should initially validate strong 2Q execution, but the ~2.84 MMBbl/d 3Q throughput guide versus 2.90 MMBbl/d consensus implies out-period refining-volume and capture-estimate cuts as Port Arthur constraints persist. MEDIUM