{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$9.35 vs. cons $9.05",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Refining adjusted operating income per barrel",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$17.10/bbl vs. cons $16.55/bbl",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Renewable Diesel operating income",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$155M vs. cons $180M",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "3Q26 total refining throughput",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~2.84 MMBbl/d vs. cons 2.90 MMBbl/d (3Q26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "3Q26 refining cash operating expense",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$4.75/bbl vs. cons $4.82/bbl (3Q26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Port Arthur diesel-hydrotreater recovery / Gulf Coast utilization",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~1.73 MMBbl/d Gulf Coast throughput vs. cons 1.78 MMBbl/d (4Q26)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Share repurchases",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$1.25B of repurchases vs. cons $1.05B (3Q26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 1.8,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -2.5,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "The ~$9.35 EPS beat versus $9.05 consensus and ~$17.10/bbl refining capture versus $16.55/bbl should initially validate strong 2Q execution, but the ~2.84 MMBbl/d 3Q throughput guide versus 2.90 MMBbl/d consensus implies out-period refining-volume and capture-estimate cuts as Port Arthur constraints persist.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}