VLO Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-30

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
VLO Report EBIT/bbl — Refining (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~$15.50 vs. cons $14.73 MEDIUM
VLO Report EPS — Diluted Operating (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~$10.80 vs. cons $10.08 MEDIUM
VLO Report Throughput — Total Mbpd (Q2 2026) IN-LINE pred ~2.83M vs. cons 2.811M MEDIUM
VLO Guide Throughput — Total Mbpd (Q3 2026) LOWER guide ~2.94M midpoint vs. cons ~2.98M MEDIUM
VLO Guide Refining Opex/bbl (Q3 2026) LOWER guide ~$4.95 vs. cons ~$4.86 MEDIUM
VLO Guide Margin outlook commentary (Q3 2026) BETTER guide constructive/restocking thesis intact vs. market fear of cliff-edge MEDIUM
VLO Guide Port Arthur diesel hydrotreater timeline BETTER guide preliminary timeline/cost provided vs. current no-timeline uncertainty LOW
VLO Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -2.5% MEDIUM
VLO Return 5-day cumulative residual -4.0% (FADE) FADE — sell-side trims Q3 EPS on throughput guide; Iran-conflict premium questioned; buyback provides floor but does not reverse MEDIUM