{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "EBIT/bbl \u2014 Refining (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$15.50 vs. cons $14.73",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "EPS \u2014 Diluted Operating (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$10.80 vs. cons $10.08",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Throughput \u2014 Total Mbpd (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~2.83M vs. cons 2.811M",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Throughput \u2014 Total Mbpd (Q3 2026)",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~2.94M midpoint vs. cons ~2.98M",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Refining Opex/bbl (Q3 2026)",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~$4.95 vs. cons ~$4.86",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Margin outlook commentary (Q3 2026)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide constructive/restocking thesis intact vs. market fear of cliff-edge",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Port Arthur diesel hydrotreater timeline",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide preliminary timeline/cost provided vs. current no-timeline uncertainty",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -2.5,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -4.0,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "FADE \u2014 sell-side trims Q3 EPS on throughput guide; Iran-conflict premium questioned; buyback provides floor but does not reverse",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}