VLO Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-30

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
VLO Report Adjusted diluted EPS BEAT pred ~$10.50 vs. cons $10.08 MEDIUM
VLO Report Refining EBITDA BEAT pred ~$4.60B vs. cons $4.38B MEDIUM
VLO Report Refining throughput IN-LINE pred ~2.800MMbpd vs. cons 2.811MMbpd MEDIUM
VLO Guide Q3 throughput UNCHANGED guide midpoint ~2.88MMbpd vs. cons 2.866MMbpd LOW
VLO Guide Q3 refining-margin commentary BETTER guide: tight product balances / healthy margins vs. consensus UNVERIFIED LOW
VLO Guide FY26 base CapEx UNCHANGED guide ~$1.7B, excluding Port Arthur, vs. consensus UNVERIFIED LOW
VLO Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -2.5% LOW
VLO Return 5-day cumulative residual -3.0% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) FOLLOW-THROUGH — confirmation is insufficient versus an elevated forward bar LOW