{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted diluted EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$10.50 vs. cons $10.08",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Refining EBITDA",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$4.60B vs. cons $4.38B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Refining throughput",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~2.800MMbpd vs. cons 2.811MMbpd",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Q3 throughput",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide midpoint ~2.88MMbpd vs. cons 2.866MMbpd",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q3 refining-margin commentary",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide: tight product balances / healthy margins vs. consensus UNVERIFIED",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 base CapEx",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$1.7B, excluding Port Arthur, vs. consensus UNVERIFIED",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -2.5,
  "day1_confidence": "LOW",
  "day5_residual_pct": -3.0,
  "day5_path": "FOLLOW-THROUGH",
  "day5_rationale": "FOLLOW-THROUGH \u2014 confirmation is insufficient versus an elevated forward bar",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}