VMC Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-29

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
VMC Report Adjusted EBITDA IN-LINE pred ~$680M vs. cons ~$690M MEDIUM
VMC Report Adjusted diluted EPS (cont. ops) IN-LINE pred ~$2.72 vs. cons ~$2.78 MEDIUM
VMC Report Aggregates freight-adj. mix price (YoY) BEAT pred ~+7% (~$23.6/ton) vs. cons ~+5.5% (~$23.3/ton) MEDIUM
VMC Guide FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA guide UNCHANGED guide ~$2.4-2.6B (mid ~$2.5B) vs. cons ~$2.5B (FY2026) HIGH
VMC Guide FY2026 aggregates price growth guide BETTER guide ~high-single-digit (~+7-8%) vs. cons ~+6% (FY2026) LOW
VMC Guide FY2026 cash cost of sales / diesel cost growth UNCHANGED guide ~low-single-digit (~+3-4%) vs. cons ~+4% (FY2026) MEDIUM
VMC Guide FY2026 aggregates volume growth guide UNCHANGED guide ~low-single-digit (~+2-3%) vs. cons ~+3% (FY2026) MEDIUM
VMC Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.0% LOW
VMC Return 5-day cumulative residual +0.5% (STABILIZE) Telegraphed diesel-squeeze quarter should print roughly in-line-to-slightly-better on easier Q2 volume comps and accelerating price, and management reaffirms (not raises) the ~$2.5B FY guide. Because the beat is driven by seasonal/one-quarter factors while H2 carries harder comps, the reaffirmed range caps upward out-period revisions—so a modest positive day-1 reaction on pricing cadence stabilizes rather than follows through; forward commentary (mid-year increase stick, cost recovery, M&A) drives the tape more than the headline. LOW