VMC Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-29

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
VMC Report Adjusted Diluted EPS IN-LINE pred ~$2.52 vs. cons $2.54 MEDIUM
VMC Report Aggregates Shipments (tons) BEAT pred ~61.0M tons vs. cons ~60.0M tons MEDIUM
VMC Report Aggregates Freight-Adjusted Price/Ton BEAT pred ~$23.60/ton vs. cons ~$23.30/ton MEDIUM
VMC Guide FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA UNCHANGED guide ~$2.5B (midpoint of $2.4-2.6B) vs. cons ~$2.50B (FY2026) HIGH
VMC Guide FY2026 Aggregates Pricing Growth (freight-adjusted) BETTER guide ~7% full-year growth vs. cons ~5% (FY2026) MEDIUM
VMC Guide Diesel/Cost Headwind Trajectory (H2 moderation commentary) UNKNOWN guide ~$25M Q2 hit fully absorbed, cash cost growth moderating to mid-single-digits vs. cons assumption of continued high-single-digit cost growth into H2 (FY2026) LOW
VMC Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.2% MEDIUM
VMC Return 5-day cumulative residual -0.6% (FADE) Stock already rallied ~13% off its July 23 low into the print (275→288), pricing in a clean quarter; a reaffirmed (not raised) full-year EBITDA guide despite a Q2 pricing/volume beat, combined with lingering 'sticky' diesel cost commentary and no incremental M&A/data-center specifics, likely caps upward estimate revisions and prompts partial profit-taking after the initial pop, consistent with implicit out-period math not improving enough to sustain follow-through. LOW