VMC Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-29

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
VMC Report Adjusted EBITDA MISS pred ~$650M vs. cons ~$670M MEDIUM
VMC Report Adjusted diluted EPS from continuing operations MISS pred ~$2.35 vs. cons ~$2.45 MEDIUM
VMC Report Aggregates freight-adjusted sales price per ton IN-LINE pred ~$22.95/ton vs. cons ~$23.00/ton MEDIUM
VMC Guide FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA UNCHANGED guide ~$2.50B midpoint vs. cons ~$2.50B midpoint (FY2026) HIGH
VMC Guide FY2026 aggregates shipment growth UNCHANGED guide ~2.0% growth vs. cons ~2.0% growth (FY2026) MEDIUM
VMC Guide FY2026 aggregates cash-cost growth LOWER guide ~4.0% growth vs. cons ~3.0% growth (FY2026) MEDIUM
VMC Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -3.5% MEDIUM
VMC Return 5-day cumulative residual -5.0% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) A modest EBITDA and EPS miss with maintained ~$2.50B FY2026 midpoint leaves roughly ~$1.40B of second-half Adjusted EBITDA needed versus consensus ~ $1.36B; the implied back-half step-up and above-consensus ~4.0% cash-cost growth should pull out-period estimates lower even if management does not formally cut guidance. MEDIUM