Company | Vulcan Materials Company |
Ticker | VMC (NYSE) |
Reporting Period | Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026) |
Earnings Date | July 29, 2026 — Earnings Call at 9:00 a.m. CT |
Prepared | July 28, 2026 |
Sector / ETF Benchmark | Materials — XLB (Materials Select Sector SPDR) |
Key Takeaway: The setup into Q2 2026 is a moderate beat, with the primary swing factor being whether mid-year price increases and Vulcan Way of Operating efficiencies can offset the ~$25M diesel headwind management flagged for Q2 — consensus already embeds some of this pain, leaving the bar achievable but not low. The wildcard is the NAFTA arbitration outcome (announced July 27), which delivered a negligible ~$15M award vs. $1.7B sought — a non-event for the core business but a potential distraction heading into the call.
Heading into Q2 2026, Vulcan's setup is constructive but not without near-term friction. Consensus EBITDA of ~$645M implies roughly 10% year-over-year growth — a bar that is achievable given the strong Q1 momentum (9% EBITDA growth, 5% volume growth) and management's explicit reaffirmation of $2.4–$2.6B full-year guidance. The key tension is diesel: management guided Q2 unit cash costs to run at roughly double the Q1 year-over-year rate (high single digits), with an estimated ~$25M dollar headwind from elevated diesel prices that began spiking in February 2026 following the Iran conflict. Management's tone on the Q1 call was notably confident — they framed diesel as manageable and temporary, highlighted mid-year price increases already announced across all markets, and pointed to surcharges and Vulcan Way of Operating fuel-efficiency levers as offsets — but the market will want to see proof of execution in the Q2 numbers.
Estimate revisions have drifted modestly lower since Q1 earnings (Q2 EPS consensus moved from ~$2.62 post-Q1 to ~$2.46 currently), suggesting the Street has already partially de-risked the diesel headwind, which creates a cushion for a beat if pricing and volumes hold. The stock has underperformed XLB by roughly 10 percentage points since the Q1 print, trading down from ~$296 to ~$288 as of July 28, with multiple compression (EV/EBITDA from ~17x to ~15.75x NTM) doing most of the damage — suggesting the stock has not priced in a beat and any positive surprise on pricing or cost control could be a meaningful catalyst. The single biggest wildcard remains the NAFTA arbitration resolution (July 27): the tribunal awarded only ~$15M vs. $1.7B sought, which Vulcan called "insignificant" — this removes a long-running overhang but also eliminates any upside optionality from a large award, and management's tone on the call will be closely watched for any residual impact on Mexico operations or capital allocation plans.
Key Takeaway: Consensus sets a moderate bar — ~$645M EBITDA and ~$2.46 adjusted EPS for Q2 2026 — with aggregate shipment volume and cash gross profit per ton being the two biggest swing factors. Pricing is the more important variable: if mid-year increases flow through as guided, the print should beat; if diesel costs run hotter than expected, the miss risk is concentrated in unit margins.
KPI | Q1 2026 Actual (Last Quarter) | Q2 2025 Actual (Prior Year Period) | Q2 2026 Consensus Estimate | YoY Change (vs. Q2 2025) | FY 2026 Guidance (Mgmt) | Consensus vs. Guidance Midpoint |
Total Revenue ($M) | $1,756M | $2,102M | $2,128M | +1.2% | $8,139M (consensus FY) | N/A — no explicit revenue guidance |
Adjusted EBITDA ($M) | $447M (Adj. EBITDA) | $659M | $645M | -2.1% | $2,400–$2,600M ($2,500M mid) | $2,449M FY cons. vs. $2,500M mid = -2.0% |
Adj. EPS — Diluted, Cont. Ops ($) | $1.35 | $2.45 | $2.46 | +0.4% | N/A — no explicit EPS guidance | N/A |
Aggregate Shipments (M tons) | 50.0M tons (+5% YoY) | 57.97M tons | 59.1M tons | +1.9% | Modest organic growth expected | Tracking guidance |
Avg. Realized Price — Aggregates ($/ton) | $22.80/ton | $22.11/ton | $23.02/ton | +4.1% | Mid-single-digit growth; accelerating through year | Tracking guidance |
Cash Gross Profit per Ton — Aggregates ($/ton) | $10.93/ton | $11.87/ton | $11.85/ton | -0.2% | Continued compounding toward $20/ton LT target | Slight miss vs. prior year; diesel headwind key risk |
Sources: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data (Total revenues, EBITDA, EPS — Diluted Continuing Ops Operating, Volume — Aggregates Shipments excl. acquisitions, Average realized price — Aggregates, Cash gross profit per unit — Aggregates); VMC Q1 2026 Earnings Release (April 29, 2026); VMC Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript.
Quarter | KPI | Reported | Consensus | Surprise % | Result |
Q1 2026 | Adj. EPS | $1.35 | $1.11 | +21.6% | Beat |
Q1 2026 | Agg. Shipments (M tons) | 50.0M | 49.1M | +1.8% | Beat |
Q4 2025 | Adj. EPS | $1.70 | $2.12 | -19.8% | Miss |
Q4 2025 | Agg. Shipments (M tons) | 53.6M | 53.5M | +0.2% | In-Line |
Q3 2025 | Adj. EPS | $2.84 | $2.70 | +5.2% | Beat |
Q3 2025 | Agg. Shipments (M tons) | 60.5M | 59.8M | +1.2% | Beat |
Q2 2025 | Adj. EPS | $2.45 | $2.55 | -3.9% | Miss |
Q2 2025 | Agg. Shipments (M tons) | 58.0M | N/A — not in VA | N/A | N/A |
Q1 2025 | Adj. EPS | $1.00 | $0.77 | +29.9% | Beat |
Q1 2025 | Agg. Shipments (M tons) | 46.4M | N/A — not in VA | N/A | N/A |
Q4 2024 | Adj. EPS | $2.17 | $1.74 | +24.7% | Beat |
Q4 2024 | Agg. Shipments (M tons) | 52.96M | N/A — not in VA | N/A | N/A |
Q3 2024 | Adj. EPS | $2.22 | $2.35 | -5.5% | Miss |
Q3 2024 | Agg. Shipments (M tons) | 58.5M | N/A — not in VA | N/A | N/A |
Pattern: VMC has beaten on Adj. EPS in 5 of the last 8 quarters, with the notable exception of Q4 2025 (a significant miss driven by weather and cost headwinds that caused the stock to gap down sharply) and Q2 2025 (a modest miss). The Q1 2026 beat was the largest in recent history at +21.6%, suggesting the Street had over-de-risked the setup. Aggregate shipment consensus data is only available in VA for Q3 2025 and Q1 2026, both of which were beats. Sources: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data.
Key Takeaway: Full-year EBITDA guidance of $2.4–$2.6B was reiterated unchanged at Q1 2026 earnings (April 29) and has not been formally revised since. Management's tone has shifted modestly more cautious on near-term costs (diesel headwind concentrated in Q2) but remains confident on the full-year outlook, with pricing expected to accelerate through the back half.
Metric | Initial Guidance (Q1 2026 Earnings Call — Apr 29, 2026) | Revised Guidance | Current Consensus | Note |
FY 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | $2,400–$2,600M ($2,500M midpoint) | Unchanged | $2,449M | Reiterated at Q1 2026 earnings; consensus sits ~2% below midpoint, reflecting diesel uncertainty |
Aggregate Shipments (FY 2026) | Modest organic growth year-over-year | Unchanged | ~227.6M tons (FY cons.) | Tracking guidance; Q2 expected to continue at planned shipping levels assuming normal weather |
Aggregate Pricing (FY 2026) | Mid-single-digit growth; start at low end, accelerate through year; exit at high end of range | Unchanged | $23.10/ton (FY cons.) | Mid-year price increases announced across all markets several weeks before Apr 29 call; expected to flow through in H2 |
Unit Cash Cost Growth — Aggregates (FY 2026) | Low single-digit growth for full year; higher in H1, moderating in H2 | Unchanged | N/A — not tracked in VA | Q2 specifically flagged as the quarter where diesel headwind is most acute (~$25M impact); guidance built assuming diesel stays elevated |
California Ready-Mix Concrete Divestiture | Expected to close in Q2 2026 | Effective date: Q2 2026 (pending regulatory approval as of Apr 29) | N/A | Proceeds to be redeployed into aggregates growth (bolt-ons, greenfields, rail yards) |
Source: VMC Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (April 29, 2026); VMC Q1 2026 Earnings Release (April 29, 2026); Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data.
Key Takeaway: Estimates have drifted modestly lower since Q1 earnings for both Q2 and FY 2026, with Q2 EPS down ~6% from the post-Q1 baseline — the Street has partially de-risked the diesel headwind. Full-year EBITDA consensus sits ~2% below the guidance midpoint, suggesting the bar is achievable if H2 pricing acceleration materializes as guided.
KPI (Period) | Estimate ~5 Days Post Q1 Earnings (as of May 6, 2026) | Current Consensus (Jul 28, 2026) | Estimate Δ (%) | Initial Guidance (Q1 2026 Call) | Current Guidance | Guidance Δ | Consensus vs. Guidance (%) |
Adj. EPS — Q2 2026 | $2.62 | $2.46 | -6.1% | No explicit Q2 EPS guidance | No explicit Q2 EPS guidance | N/A | N/A |
Adj. EPS — FY 2026 | $9.24 | $9.08 | -1.7% | No explicit FY EPS guidance | No explicit FY EPS guidance | N/A | N/A |
Total Revenue — Q2 2026 ($M) | $2,140M | $2,128M | -0.6% | No explicit revenue guidance | No explicit revenue guidance | N/A | N/A |
Total Revenue — FY 2026 ($M) | $8,127M | $8,139M | +0.1% | No explicit revenue guidance | No explicit revenue guidance | N/A | N/A |
EBITDA — Q2 2026 ($M) | $669M | $645M | -3.6% | No explicit Q2 EBITDA guidance | No explicit Q2 EBITDA guidance | N/A | N/A |
EBITDA — FY 2026 ($M) | $2,471M | $2,449M | -0.9% | $2,400–$2,600M ($2,500M mid) | $2,400–$2,600M (unchanged) | Unchanged | -2.0% vs. midpoint |
Agg. Shipments — Q2 2026 (M tons) | 60.2M | 59.1M | -1.8% | Modest organic growth (FY) | Unchanged | Unchanged | Tracking guidance |
Avg. Realized Price — Agg. Q2 2026 ($/ton) | $23.03/ton | $23.02/ton | -0.1% | Mid-single-digit growth; accelerating through year | Unchanged | Unchanged | Tracking guidance |
Cash GP/ton — Agg. Q2 2026 ($/ton) | $11.97/ton | $11.85/ton | -1.0% | Continued compounding toward $20/ton LT target | Unchanged | Unchanged | Slight miss vs. prior year; diesel headwind key risk |
Note: Indexed to 100 at April 29, 2026 close (VMC: $296.08, XLB: $50.96, SPY: $711.58). XLB (Materials Select Sector SPDR) is the appropriate sector benchmark for VMC as a large-cap materials company. Source: Stock Price Data (Yahoo Finance).
Performance Decomposition: Over the 1-month window, VMC's -7.35% price decline was driven almost entirely by multiple compression: EV/EBITDA contracted from ~17.2x to ~15.75x NTM (-8.3%), while NTM EBITDA estimates were essentially flat. Over 3 months, the stock is down -0.98% with EV/EBITDA down -4.5% — again, multiple-driven. The 12-month picture is more constructive: VMC is up +4.96% with EV/EBITDA up +1.3%, suggesting the longer-term fundamental story is intact. The near-term multiple compression reflects macro uncertainty (Iran conflict, diesel spike, tariff noise) rather than a fundamental re-rating, which creates a setup where a clean Q2 beat could re-rate the stock quickly.
Key Takeaway: The most important development since Q1 earnings is the NAFTA arbitration resolution (July 27, 2026) — a negligible $15M award vs. $1.7B sought removes a long-running overhang but eliminates upside optionality; management's tone on the call will be closely watched. The diesel spike from the Iran conflict is the primary operational headwind heading into Q2.
Screening Methodology: This section includes only peer commentary made between May 29 and July 28, 2026 that explicitly addresses the peer's current quarter (Q2 2026) or forward outlook. Commentary solely describing a prior-quarter result (e.g., Q1 2026 earnings recaps) is excluded. Strategic M&A announcements are included where they contain explicit forward demand commentary, but are clearly distinguished from operating read-throughs. The eligible peer universe is VMC's direct building materials / aggregates peers: MLM, CRH, EXP, SUM, and adjacent materials companies (SHW, NUE, STLD, DOW) where relevant.
Important Caveat: The eligible peer commentary pool for the May 29–July 28, 2026 window is limited. MLM and CRH have not yet reported Q2 2026 earnings (both are VMC's closest peers and report after VMC). The most relevant read-throughs come from (1) MLM's Lhoist acquisition call (June 29), which contains explicit forward demand commentary, and (2) adjacent materials companies (SHW, NUE, STLD, DOW) that have reported Q2 2026 results with construction/infrastructure demand commentary. No Q2 2026 earnings transcripts from MLM or CRH are available as of July 28, 2026.
Classification: Strategic M&A announcement with explicit forward demand commentary. This is NOT a quarterly earnings read-through, but the call contains material forward-looking statements about end-market demand that are directly relevant to VMC's Q2 2026 setup.
Classification: Strategic M&A announcement. Limited operating read-through; included for sector context only.
Note: The following peers have reported Q2 2026 results as of July 28, 2026. Their commentary is included where it contains explicit read-through for construction demand, infrastructure activity, or cost/pricing dynamics relevant to VMC's Q2 2026 setup.
Classification: Q2 2026 earnings result with forward guidance. Adjacent read-through (coatings/construction end markets).
Classification: Q2 2026 earnings result. Adjacent read-through (steel demand as a proxy for non-residential construction activity).
Classification: Q2 2026 earnings result. Adjacent read-through (steel demand / non-residential construction).
Classification: Q2 2026 earnings result. Partial read-through (construction chemicals, housing demand commentary).
Peer | Date | Commentary Type | Key Read-Through for VMC | Signal |
MLM | Jun 29, 2026 | M&A call — forward demand commentary | Texas demand outpacing U.S.; data centers accelerating; infrastructure tailwinds confirmed; $13.5B deal validates sector strategic value | Positive |
CRH | Jun 22, 2026 | M&A announcement — sector context only | $8.5B Arcosa deal confirms infrastructure megatrend conviction; no Q2 operating commentary available | Positive (strategic) |
SHW | Jul 28, 2026 | Q2 2026 earnings — operating read-through | Non-res/industrial demand solid; guidance raised despite "no meaningful improvement" in residential; pricing power intact | Positive |
STLD | Jul 21, 2026 | Q2 2026 earnings — operating read-through | Healthy non-res construction demand; declining inventories; extended backlogs — positive for VMC volume | Positive |
NUE | Jul 27, 2026 | Q2 2026 earnings — operating read-through | Higher steel prices and volumes in Q2; confirms non-res construction activity; positive leading indicator for aggregates demand | Positive |
DOW | Jul 23, 2026 | Q2 2026 earnings — operating read-through | U.S. housing "remains weak" (consistent with VMC guidance); data center demand robust; Q3 guidance miss signals energy cost risk | Mixed |
MLM / CRH (Q2 earnings) | Not yet reported | N/A — not available | Closest direct peers have not reported Q2 2026 as of July 28, 2026; no eligible operating read-through | N/A |
Overall Peer Read-Through Assessment: The peer commentary picture heading into VMC's Q2 2026 print is predominantly positive. Non-residential construction demand is holding up (STLD, NUE both beat on volume and price), pricing power is intact across the materials complex (SHW raised guidance), and the sector's strategic value is being validated by two major M&A deals (MLM/Lhoist, CRH/Arcosa). The primary risk flagged by peers is residential weakness (DOW) and energy cost headwinds (DOW Q3 guidance miss) — both of which VMC has already guided for. The absence of Q2 earnings from MLM and CRH (VMC's closest direct peers) limits the precision of the read-through, but the adjacent data points are constructive.
Key Takeaway: Insider activity since Q1 2026 earnings is minimal and unremarkable — one small open-market sale by a Senior VP in mid-June, with no open-market purchases and no clustered selling. The absence of insider buying is not a negative signal given the stock's recent underperformance; the absence of clustered selling is modestly reassuring.
Name | Title | Transaction Type | Value | Date | Note |
Clement, David P. | Senior Vice President | Open Market Sale (Code S) | $647,101 (2,212 shares @ $292.29) | Jun 15, 2026 (filed Jun 16, 2026) | Discretionary sale; no 10b5-1 plan indicated in filing. Small in size relative to typical insider transactions; not a clustered or unusual sale. |
Additional Context: Multiple directors and officers filed Form 4s in the period (Anderson Melissa H., Carlisle Mary Andrews — SVP & CFO, Fanning Thomas A., Hall Grayson, Hostetler Cynthia Lynn, Kennard Lydia H., O'Brien Richard T., Prokopanko James T., Quirk Kathleen L., Shah Mitesh Bansilal — SVP & CHRO, Steiner David P., Styslinger Lee J. III, Willis George), but all reported transactions were grants (Code A), vesting, or exercises (Code M) — not open-market purchases or sales. No open-market purchases were reported by any insider in the period. The overall insider picture is quiet and unremarkable.
Source: SEC Form 4 filings for VMC (January–July 2026), accessed via SEC EDGAR.