I'll research VRSK before writing the preview. Let me gather recent earnings, filings, and news in parallel.Let me read the most recent Q1 2026 earnings call and release, plus the year-ago Q2 2025 release for comparison.Let me get the year-ago Q2 2025 release for comparison base and recent analyst/news context.Let me check on the AccuLynx acquisition status, consensus estimates, and the recent CIO transition news.Let me get consensus estimates and check the AccuLynx close status via web search.I have what I need. Let me write the earnings preview.
Report date: Wednesday, July 29, 2026 (before market open) | Event: 2026 Q2 Earnings Call, 8:30 a.m. ET Recent price: ~$212 (7/28) | Market cap: ~$25B | ~131M shares out
Verisk enters this print as a "show-me" reacceleration story. Management explicitly framed Q1 2026 as the trough — both in dollar revenue and in organic constant-currency (OCC) growth — and promised a gradual build back toward its long-term algorithm as the year progresses. Q1 OCC revenue grew just 4.7% (underwriting +5.3%, claims +3.4%), below Verisk's typical high-single-digit pace, dragged by three transitory factors: carryover from unusually low weather/catastrophe activity, tough renewal comps, and a work stoppage on a federal government contract. Q2 is the second and last quarter with those tough first-half comps, so the key question isn't whether growth improves modestly, but whether management sounds confident enough on the H2 ramp to keep the full-year guide intact — and whether subscription growth (the real signal) holds in the 7% zone.
Note the reported growth rate is being suppressed by the divestiture of Verisk Marketing Solutions (VMS), which contributed ~$68M of revenue in 2025 (little seasonality, ~$17M/quarter) and is an ~$0.11 full-year EPS headwind. OCC growth (which strips out the disposition) will read cleaner and higher than the reported number — watch that gap.
a) Is the trough behind them? (OCC trajectory) Q1 OCC of 4.7% came in "modestly ahead" of Verisk's own expectations. Management guided that Q2 OCC could still print below the long-term range because of lingering H1 comp headwinds, with the reacceleration weighted to H2 as easy comps kick in. Anything that shows the core (ex-weather, ex-government contract) is intact — ideally OCC in the mid-5s or better — supports the bull case. A sub-5% OCC with soft commentary would raise doubts about the H2 hockey stick embedded in guidance.
b) Subscription durability (the real tell) Subscriptions are ~84% of revenue and grew 7% OCC in Q1 on top of a very tough ~10.6% year-ago compare. This is the single most important number for the quality of the quarter. Drivers to watch: continued price realization in Forms, Rules & Loss Costs (Core Lines "Reimagine," targeting ~25 module releases in 2026), double-digit growth in Catastrophe & Risk (Synergy Studio platform ramp, new US tropical cyclone model), anti-fraud value realization, and double-digit Life growth (FAST + SuranceBay cross-sell). Management reiterated they expect high-single-digit subscription growth to be sustainable.
c) Transactional/weather drag Transactional revenue (~16% of the mix) fell ~6% OCC in Q1 on low weather activity, softer personal-auto, and lower property overages. 2025 saw near-record-low catastrophe losses, and the year-ago Q2 base was still relatively normal — so the transactional line (Property & Restoration Solutions especially) is likely to remain a drag. Watch for any commentary on 2026 cat/weather activity, which would swing the transactional line.
d) Margins — expect optics to look weak, and that's OK Q1 adjusted EBITDA margin was 55.9% (+60 bps YoY). But the year-ago Q2 margin of 57.6% was flattered by a ~120 bps one-time FX translation benefit that will not recur. So a YoY margin decline in Q2 is expected and pre-flagged — don't misread it as deterioration. Full-year guide is 56.0%–56.5%, with expenses ramping through the year and AI investment offsetting productivity gains (management calls AI a "push" on margin for now).
e) AI narrative — the multiple driver Post-Investor Day, the AI story is central to the bull thesis. Q1 highlights included winning a competitive RFP to be the strategic data/analytics/AI partner for a global insurer building a "digitally native" underwriting entity, a growing pipeline of proof-of-concepts (20+ follow-ups on Augmented Underwriting), aerial-imagery products (+30% over two years), and Digital Media Forensics (6th top-10 carrier onboarded). Management is not sizing the top-line AI opportunity yet and flagged that AI-related contracting (IP/governance) is lengthening some sales cycles. Investors will want fresh, more concrete monetization signposts here; vague "long-term opportunity" language could disappoint given the multiple.
Verisk reaffirmed its FY2026 outlook at Q1 (it did not raise). Full-year guide:
| Metric | FY2026 Guidance |
|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.19B – $3.24B |
| Adj. EBITDA | $1.79B – $1.83B |
| Adj. EBITDA margin | 56.0% – 56.5% |
| Adj. diluted EPS | $7.45 – $7.75 |
| Interest expense | $190M – $200M |
| Tax rate | 23% – 26% |
| Capex | $260M – $280M |
| Dividend/share | $2.00 |
To hit the ~$3.215B midpoint after a $783M Q1, the back half needs to average ~$811M/quarter — so Q2 consensus of ~$802M is consistent with a building ramp. A guidance raise would be a strong positive surprise (recall management raised the FY25 guide at last year's Q2), but given the reaffirm-only tone in Q1 and the still-tough Q2 comp, a maintain-and-reiterate-confidence outcome is the base case. Watch the language on H2 reacceleration closely.
On 7/28 Verisk disclosed (8-K) that CIO Nick Daffan is transitioning out of his role. Minor for the quarter, but given how central "data-readiness/AI-ready infrastructure" is to the investment thesis, listen for any color on technology leadership continuity.
Key comps to benchmark against: Q2 2025 revenue $772.6M / underwriting $550M / claims $223M; adj. EBITDA $444.8M (57.6% margin, incl. ~120 bps non-recurring FX); adj. EPS $1.88.