Company | WEC Energy Group, Inc. |
Ticker | NYSE: WEC |
Reporting Period | Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026) |
Earnings Date | July 29, 2026 — 2:00 PM ET |
Prepared | July 28, 2026 |
Sector / Sub-Sector | Utilities — Regulated Electric & Gas |
Primary Valuation Metric | Price / NTM Operating EPS (P/E) — NTM P/E: ~19.5x |
Key Takeaway: The setup into WEC’s Q2 2026 print is broadly constructive but not a high bar — consensus Operating EPS of ~$0.81 sits comfortably within management’s guided range of $0.76–$0.82, and the bigger swing factor is any incremental data-center announcement or regulatory update rather than the quarterly number itself.
Heading into the Q2 2026 print, WEC’s setup is one of the more straightforward in the regulated utility space: management provided explicit Q2 guidance of $0.76–$0.82 per share on the Q1 call (accounting for April weather actuals), and consensus at ~$0.81 sits near the top of that range, leaving limited room for a dramatic beat but also a well-anchored floor. The bar is moderate — WEC has exceeded or met the top end of its annual guidance for 22 consecutive years, and the Q1 2026 print came in at $2.45 vs. consensus of ~$2.33, a meaningful beat driven by capital plan execution and operating efficiencies. Estimate trajectory has been stable-to-slightly-declining since the Q1 print (from ~$0.83 in early May to ~$0.81 today), consistent with normal seasonal patterns for a summer quarter where gas volumes are low and weather is the primary swing. The stock has pulled back ~4.4% over the past month and ~1.3% over three months, underperforming the broader market, with multiple compression (NTM P/E from ~20.2x to ~19.5x) accounting for most of the move — suggesting the market is not pricing in a beat. The single biggest wildcard is whether management uses the Q2 call to formally announce a new hyperscaler customer — explicitly telegraphed on the Q1 call as a likely Q3 announcement — and whether the Wisconsin PSC’s written VLC tariff order (verbally approved April 24) provides any incremental clarity on terms; either catalyst could move the stock more than the quarterly EPS number itself.
Key Takeaway: Consensus Operating EPS of ~$0.81 sits near the top of management’s $0.76–$0.82 Q2 guide, making the bar moderate — a beat is possible but not wide open. Revenue is the bigger swing factor given weather-driven load variability and the ramp of large-customer demand.
KPI | Q1 2026 Actual (Last Quarter) | Q2 2025 Actual (Prior Year Period) | Q2 2026 Consensus Estimate | YoY Change | Q2 2026 Guidance | Consensus vs. Guidance Midpoint |
Operating EPS (Diluted) | $2.45 | $0.76 | $0.81 | +6.6% | $0.76–$0.82 (mid: $0.79) | +2.5% above mid |
Operating Revenues ($M) | $3,434 | $2,010 | $2,089 | +3.9% | No specific Q2 revenue guidance provided | N/A |
Capital Expenditures ($M) | $818 | $829 | $1,382 | +66.7% | FY 2026: ~$5,675M total | N/A (quarterly) |
Wisconsin Retail Electric Volume (GWh) | 9,010 | 8,731 | 8,993 | +3.0% | No specific volume guidance | N/A |
FY 2026 Operating EPS (full year) | — | — | $5.60 | ~+1.6% vs. FY 2025 actual | $5.51–$5.61 (mid: $5.56) | +0.7% above mid |
Sources: Operating EPS and Operating Revenues from Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data (https://insights.visiblealpha.com/mex/WEC_US/NMV/IS). Capital Expenditures from Visible Alpha (https://insights.visiblealpha.com/mex/WEC_US/NMV/CF). Wisconsin Retail Electric Volume from Visible Alpha (https://insights.visiblealpha.com/mex/WEC_US/NMV/WS). Q2 2026 EPS guidance range of $0.76–$0.82 from WEC Q1 2026 Earnings Call (May 5, 2026). FY 2026 guidance of $5.51–$5.61 from WEC Q1 2026 Earnings Release (May 5, 2026).
Quarter | Reported ($) | Consensus ($) | Surprise % | Result |
Q1 2026 | 2.45 | 2.33 | +5.2% | Beat |
Q4 2025 | 1.42 | 1.39 | +2.2% | Beat |
Q3 2025 | 0.83 | 0.80 | +3.8% | Beat |
Q2 2025 | 0.76 | 0.73 | +4.1% | Beat |
Q1 2025 | 2.27 | 2.17 | +4.6% | Beat |
Q4 2024 | 1.43 | 1.43 | 0.0% | In-Line |
Q3 2024 | 0.82 | 0.71 | +15.5% | Beat |
Q2 2024 | N/A — not in VA | N/A — not in VA | N/A | N/A |
WEC has beaten Operating EPS consensus in 6 of the last 7 quarters with available data, with the Q3 2024 beat of +15.5% being the most notable outlier; the pattern is consistent positive surprise, suggesting management guides conservatively.
Quarter | Reported ($M) | Consensus ($M) | Surprise % | Result |
Q1 2026 | 3,434 | 3,188 | +7.7% | Beat |
Q4 2025 | 2,537 | 2,128 | +19.2% | Beat |
Q3 2025 | 2,104 | 1,950 | +7.9% | Beat |
Q2 2025 | 2,010 | 1,869 | +7.5% | Beat |
Q1 2025 | 3,150 | 2,887 | +9.1% | Beat |
Q4 2024 | 2,284 | 2,636 | -13.3% | Miss |
Q3 2024 | 1,864 | 1,844 | +1.1% | Beat |
Q2 2024 | N/A — not in VA | N/A — not in VA | N/A | N/A |
Revenue beats have been consistent and large (averaging ~+7–10% in recent quarters), with the Q4 2024 miss likely reflecting a consensus modeling issue around cost-of-sales pass-through; the pattern suggests consensus systematically underestimates WEC’s revenue, though this has limited EPS read-through given regulated cost recovery.
Source: All actuals and consensus figures from Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data (https://insights.visiblealpha.com/mex/WEC_US/NMV/IS). Q2 2024 data not available in Visible Alpha for this ticker.
Key Takeaway: Guidance is unchanged since the Q1 2026 earnings call — FY 2026 Operating EPS of $5.51–$5.61 was reaffirmed with no post-earnings revisions. Tone has been consistently confident, with management’s May investor update reinforcing the ‘22 consecutive years of meeting or exceeding guidance’ track record and signaling acceleration to the upper half of the 7–8% CAGR range starting 2028.
Metric | Initial Guidance (Q1 2026 Earnings Call, May 5, 2026) | Revised Guidance | Current Consensus | Note |
FY 2026 Operating EPS | $5.51–$5.61 (mid: $5.56) | Unchanged | $5.60 | Reaffirmed at May 11 investor update (8-K EX-99.1); assumes normal weather for remainder of year; consensus sits near top of range |
Q2 2026 Operating EPS | $0.76–$0.82 (mid: $0.79); accounts for April weather actuals | Unchanged | $0.81 | No post-earnings revision; consensus near top of range |
Long-Term EPS CAGR (2026–2030) | 7–8% annually; acceleration to upper half of range starting 2028 | Unchanged | FY 2027 consensus: $6.01 | Reaffirmed at May 11 investor update; FY 2027 consensus implies ~7.3% growth from FY 2026 mid, consistent with guidance |
FY 2026 Capital Expenditures | $5,675M total (5-year plan: $37.5B) | Unchanged | $5,072M (VA consensus) | Consensus below company projection; gap may reflect timing uncertainty on large project approvals (Weston 4, solar/battery projects pending Q3/Q4 2026 approval) |
Common Equity Issuance (FY 2026) | Up to $1.1B; ~$455M locked in via Q1 ATM forward contracts | Unchanged | N/A — not tracked in VA | Remaining ~$645M to be issued; management noted any incremental capital funded at 50% equity content |
Wisconsin VLC Tariff | Verbal approval April 24, 2026; written order expected “a few weeks” post-April 24; ROE 10.48–10.98%, equity ratio 57%, threshold 100 MW | Written order expected; no formal revision | N/A | Written order likely issued or imminent by Q2 call; key watch item for formal confirmation of tariff terms |
Sources: WEC Q1 2026 Earnings Call transcript (May 5, 2026); WEC Q1 2026 Earnings Release press release (May 5, 2026); WEC Investor Update 8-K EX-99.1 (May 11, 2026). Consensus figures from Visible Alpha (https://insights.visiblealpha.com/mex/WEC_US/NMV/IS; https://insights.visiblealpha.com/mex/WEC_US/NMV/CF).
Key Takeaway: Estimates for Q2 2026 and FY 2026 have drifted modestly lower since the Q1 print (Q2 EPS from ~$0.81 to ~$0.81, essentially flat; FY 2026 from ~$5.60 to $5.60), tracking tightly with guidance and showing no divergence. The gap between consensus and guidance midpoint is minimal, suggesting the market is pricing in a clean in-line quarter with no upside catalyst baked in.
KPI & Period | Estimate ~5 Days Post Q1 Earnings (as of ~May 12, 2026) | Current Consensus (July 28, 2026) | Estimate Δ (%) | Initial Guidance (Q1 2026 Call) | Current Guidance | Guidance Δ | Consensus vs. Guidance Mid (%) |
Operating EPS — Q2 2026 | $0.808 | $0.809 | +0.1% | $0.76–$0.82 (mid: $0.79) | Unchanged | 0% | +2.4% above mid |
Operating EPS — FY 2026 | $5.601 | $5.600 | -0.02% | $5.51–$5.61 (mid: $5.56) | Unchanged | 0% | +0.7% above mid |
Operating EPS — FY 2027 | $6.012 | $6.006 | -0.1% | 7–8% CAGR from 2026 mid | Unchanged | 0% | ~+7.3% growth from FY 2026 mid; within range |
Operating Revenues — Q2 2026 ($M) | $2,127 | $2,089 | -1.8% | No specific guidance | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Operating Revenues — FY 2026 ($M) | $10,507 | $10,239 | -2.6% | No specific guidance | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Capital Expenditures — FY 2026 ($M) | $5,360 | $5,072 | -5.4% | $5,675M (company projection) | Unchanged | 0% | -10.6% below company projection |
EPS estimates are essentially frozen since the Q1 print — a sign the market is waiting for the Q2 call to reset. The CapEx consensus gap (~10.6% below company projection) is the most notable divergence and likely reflects analyst conservatism on project approval timing; any acceleration in project approvals or a new hyperscaler announcement could close this gap and drive upward EPS revisions for 2027–2028.
Source: All consensus figures from Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data (https://insights.visiblealpha.com/mex/WEC_US/NMV/IS; https://insights.visiblealpha.com/mex/WEC_US/NMV/CF). Post-Q1 baseline as of approximately May 12, 2026 (5 trading days post May 5 earnings). Guidance from WEC Q1 2026 Earnings Call (May 5, 2026) and Investor Update (May 11, 2026).
Key Takeaway: WEC’s recent underperformance is almost entirely multiple-driven — NTM P/E compressed from ~20.2x to ~19.5x over the past month — not estimate-driven, as EPS revisions have been flat. The stock is down ~4.4% over one month and ~1.3% over three months, suggesting the market is not pricing in a beat and the valuation is not stretched heading into the print.
Sector ETF: XLU (Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund) — appropriate benchmark for WEC’s regulated electric and gas utility sub-sector.
Horizon | WEC Price Return | NTM EV/EBITDA at Start | NTM EV/EBITDA Now | Multiple Δ | Driver |
1 Month | -4.4% | 13.42x | 12.97x | -3.4% | Multiple compression; estimates flat |
3 Months | -1.3% | 13.19x | 12.97x | -1.7% | Modest multiple compression; estimates stable |
6 Months | +3.6% | 12.83x | 12.97x | +1.1% | Modest multiple expansion + estimate stability |
12 Months | +3.8% | 13.59x | 12.97x | -4.6% | Estimate growth offset by multiple compression |
Note: A stock performance indexed chart (WEC vs. XLU vs. S&P 500 since May 5, 2026 earnings date) was not generated in this preview due to data retrieval constraints. Key material events since last earnings: May 5 — Q1 2026 earnings beat; May 11 — Investor Day / 8-K update; May 12 — Shareholders reject supermajority voting proposals (8-K). Source: WEC stock performance decomposition data (NTM EV/EBITDA multiples).
Key Takeaway: The most important development since the Q1 print is the verbal approval of the Wisconsin VLC tariff on April 24 — the regulatory foundation for WEC’s entire data-center growth thesis — with the written order expected imminently. The Q2 call is the next major catalyst window for a new hyperscaler announcement.
Key Takeaway: No open-market insider purchases or sales (Form 4 transaction codes P/S) were identified for WEC in the period from May 5, 2026 through July 28, 2026. The absence of insider buying is not unusual for a regulated utility with a stable, predictable earnings profile, but the lack of any open-market activity — in either direction — is a neutral signal heading into the print.
Name | Title | Transaction Type | Value | Date | Note |
No open-market transactions identified | — | — | — | — | SEC Form 4 query for WEC (P/S codes, May 5 – July 28, 2026) returned no results. Note: governance-related stock vesting acceleration for retiring Chairman Klappa was disclosed via 8-K on May 7, 2026 (not an open-market transaction). |
Key Takeaway: Peer Q2 2026 earnings calls from DTE, NEE, CMS, and CNP — all reported July 24–28, 2026 — are uniformly constructive for WEC’s Q2 print and forward outlook. The dominant themes are: (1) data center demand is accelerating across all service territories with no signs of slowdown; (2) large-load tariffs are being validated as the industry standard; (3) peers are reaffirming or targeting the high end of full-year guidance; and (4) weather was a modest headwind in Q2 across the Midwest, which is the primary risk to WEC’s Q2 number.
Methodology note: Only commentary from peer Q2 2026 earnings calls (reported July 24–28, 2026) is included below. Commentary about peers’ own prior-quarter results has been excluded. All read-throughs are assessed for relevance to WEC’s Q2 2026 reporting period and forward outlook.
Theme | DTE Commentary | Read-Through for WEC | Signal |
Weather / Load | Severe storm at start of July impacted ~400,000 customers; significant infrastructure damage across Midwest service territory. Q2 electric earnings benefited from colder weather vs. Q2 2025; gas earnings hurt by warmer weather. | Mixed weather pattern in the Midwest in Q2 2026. WEC’s Q2 is primarily an electric quarter (gas volumes low in summer); colder-than-normal weather could be a modest tailwind for electric load but a headwind for gas. Storm costs are a watch item for Q3. | Neutral / Adverse |
Data Center Demand | 1.4 GW Oracle data center on track, fully approved, under construction. 1 GW Google agreement submitted to MPSC. Pipeline of 5–6 GW of additional opportunities; ~2 GW in advanced discussions. Target to reach additional agreement by end of 2026. Large load tariff moving through approval process. | Strongly favorable read-through for WEC’s data-center thesis. DTE’s pipeline growth and tariff progress validate the industry-wide demand trend. WEC’s VLC tariff (verbally approved April 24) is ahead of DTE’s in the approval process, giving WEC a first-mover advantage in the Midwest. | Favorable |
Full-Year Guidance | Year-to-date performance keeps DTE on track to reach the high end of 2026 operating EPS guidance. Confident in 6–8% long-term EPS growth through 2030. Google contract and additional data center opportunities represent further upside to plan. | Favorable — a peer targeting the high end of guidance in the same macro environment supports WEC’s ability to do the same. Both companies have similar long-term growth targets (WEC: 7–8%). | Favorable |
Regulatory | Large-load tariff designed to protect existing customers; constructive regulatory mechanisms could allow DTE to delay next electric rate case until at least 2028. Legislative changes unlikely in 2026 given divided government. | Favorable — constructive regulatory environment for large-load tariffs is consistent with WEC’s VLC tariff approval. Stable legislative backdrop reduces regulatory risk for WEC’s Wisconsin and Illinois proceedings. | Favorable |
Theme | NEE Commentary | Read-Through for WEC | Signal |
Data Center / Large-Load Demand | FPL updated large-load expectations from 6 GW to 8 GW by 2032. ~21 GW of large-load interest at FPL; 12 GW in advanced discussions. Expects to announce at least one large-load transaction under tariff by year-end. Each GW of large load equivalent to ~$2B of CapEx at same ROE as other FPL investments. NEE Resources targeting 15 GW of new generation to serve large load by 2035 (base case), with 30 GW upside. 30 data center hubs under discussion, rising to 40 by year-end. | Highly favorable — NEE’s demand upgrade (6 GW to 8 GW) and massive pipeline validate the secular data-center demand trend. WEC’s 3.9 GW through 2030 (with 4–5 GW additional potential) is well-supported by this industry backdrop. The $2B/GW CapEx equivalence metric is useful context for valuing WEC’s data-center opportunity. | Favorable |
Full-Year Guidance | 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $3.92–$4.02 unchanged; targeting high end. 8%+ EPS CAGR through 2032 reaffirmed. No material changes to development or earnings expectations. | Favorable — the largest regulated utility in the US reaffirming guidance and targeting the high end is a positive sector read-through. Consistent with WEC’s own guidance reaffirmation posture. | Favorable |
Regulatory | Florida governor signed bill codifying FPL’s large-load tariff into law — provides certainty for multi-billion dollar investments. NEE and Dominion announced support for White House Ratepayer Protection Pledge (large load customers pay fair share). FERC Section 206 show-cause orders expected to create market shift and strong demand for load-generation matching. | Favorable — legislative codification of large-load tariffs and the Ratepayer Protection Pledge are consistent with WEC’s VLC tariff design (data centers pay full costs including corporate allocations). FERC activity could benefit WEC’s ATC transmission investment. | Favorable |
Capital / Supply Chain | Solar panels secured through 2029; battery storage secured through 2029; sufficient wind sites with federal permits through 2029; transformer capacity secured through end of decade. $46B+ interest rate hedging program in place. | Favorable — supply chain security for solar and battery storage is relevant to WEC’s $12.6B regulated renewables plan (3,850 MW solar, 2,130 MW battery storage through 2030). Suggests WEC’s capital plan is executable from a supply chain perspective. | Favorable |
Theme | CMS Commentary | Read-Through for WEC | Signal |
Weather / Load | Unfavorable weather comparison vs. prior year; slightly lower cooling and heating degree days in Q2 vs. normal; unfavorable YTD weather variance of $0.08. Primary headwind has been storm costs; storm deferral filing pending with commission. July temperatures have been helpful but not counted in planning. | Adverse read-through — milder-than-normal weather in the Midwest in Q2 2026 is a headwind for WEC’s electric load. However, WEC’s Q2 guidance already accounts for April weather actuals, so the remaining risk is May–June weather. Storm costs are a watch item for Q3. | Adverse |
Data Center / Large-Load | Reached agreement under large-load tariff (Extraordinary Facilities Agreement + rate agreement). Tariff described as “one of the most constructive frameworks in the country.” Each GW of new large load provides ~$7.50/month bill benefit for average residential electric customer. Next step: local zoning approval. Capital plan does not yet reflect new large-load growth — upside opportunity to be incorporated in September IRP filing. | Favorable — CMS’s large-load tariff progress and customer bill benefit framing is directly analogous to WEC’s VLC tariff design. The $7.50/GW/month residential benefit metric is a useful comparator for WEC’s affordability narrative. Capital plan upside from data centers is a theme WEC shares. | Favorable |
Full-Year Guidance | Reaffirming FY 2026 guidance of $3.83–$3.90; confidence toward high end. Introduced FY 2027 guidance of $4.17 (6–8% growth). Long-term 6–8% EPS growth range unchanged. | Favorable — CMS reaffirming and introducing forward guidance with confidence is consistent with the sector-wide pattern of constructive guidance posture. Supports WEC’s own guidance reaffirmation. | Favorable |
Capital / Financing | Exiting non-utility renewable development; reallocating ~$1.7B of capital to utility. Retained assets generate strong cash flow. Proceeds from asset sales reduce equity needs by $350M+. $24B utility investment plan drives 10.5% rate base CAGR. Remaining on track with 2026 financing plan including ATM equity issuance. | Neutral — CMS’s capital reallocation to regulated utility is a different strategic path than WEC (which has no non-utility renewables to exit), but the underlying message — regulated utility capital is the highest-quality growth — is consistent with WEC’s 100%-regulated capital plan. | Neutral |
Theme | CNP Commentary | Read-Through for WEC | Signal |
Weather / Load | Unfavorable weather impact of $0.01 in Q2 vs. prior year; milder weather across Texas and Indiana service territories. | Adverse — milder weather in the Midwest/South in Q2 2026 is consistent with CMS’s commentary and suggests a modest weather headwind for WEC’s Q2 electric load. WEC’s Q2 guidance accounts for April actuals, limiting the downside. | Adverse |
Data Center / Large-Load | Submitted 17+ GW of large-load projects through ERCOT batch zero; 14 GW eligible, representing 65%+ increase over current system peak. ~10 GW have approved studies and eligible for base load designation. Anticipates connecting 3 GW in 2027. Indiana large-load opportunity advancing — one project would be the single largest load in the region; work already commenced. Additional 2 GW of distribution-level demand in Houston from advanced manufacturing reshoring. | Favorable — CNP’s massive large-load pipeline (14 GW eligible) and Indiana progress validate the national data-center demand trend. CNP’s Indiana large-load development is geographically adjacent to WEC’s Wisconsin/Illinois service territory, suggesting the Midwest is a hotspot for hyperscaler investment. Reshoring of advanced manufacturing is an additional demand driver WEC may also benefit from. | Favorable |
Capital / Financing | $1.2B capital plan increase (no additional equity needed); 10-year plan now $66.7B. Expects ~$6M/GW/month in new demand charges as 14 GW energizes. FFO/debt improved to 13.4% (Moody’s). Tax refund from CAMT rules could add ~30 bps to credit metrics in Q3. | Favorable — CNP’s ability to raise its capital plan without additional equity issuance demonstrates that large-load growth can be self-funding. WEC’s 50% equity content on incremental capital is more conservative but similarly disciplined. CAMT tax refund benefit is a potential tailwind for WEC as well. | Favorable |
Full-Year Guidance | Reiterating FY 2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance of $1.89–$1.91 (8% growth at midpoint). Long-term 7–9% EPS CAGR through 2035 reaffirmed at mid-to-high end. | Favorable — sector-wide guidance reaffirmation pattern is consistent and supportive of WEC’s own guidance posture. | Favorable |
Theme | Overall Signal for WEC | Key Implication |
Data Center / Large-Load Demand | Favorable | All four peers report accelerating large-load pipelines; WEC’s VLC tariff is ahead of most peers in the approval process, giving it a competitive advantage in attracting hyperscalers |
Weather / Q2 Load | Adverse / Neutral | Milder-than-normal weather in Q2 2026 across the Midwest (CMS, CNP, DTE all flag weather headwinds); WEC’s Q2 guidance accounts for April actuals, limiting downside but suggesting consensus may be at the high end of achievable range |
Full-Year Guidance Posture | Favorable | All four peers reaffirming or targeting the high end of FY 2026 guidance; sector-wide pattern supports WEC’s ability to reaffirm $5.51–$5.61 |
Large-Load Tariff Regulatory Validation | Favorable | NEE’s Florida tariff codified into law; CMS’s tariff described as “one of the most constructive in the country”; DTE’s tariff moving through approval — all validate WEC’s VLC tariff design and customer-protection framework |
Capital Plan Execution | Favorable | Peers raising capital plans (CNP +$1.2B, NEE $12–13B FPL CapEx) without equity dilution concerns; supply chain secured through 2029 (NEE); supports WEC’s $37.5B plan executability |
Sources: DTE Energy Q2 2026 Earnings Call transcript (July 28, 2026); NextEra Energy Q2 2026 Earnings Call transcript (July 24, 2026); CMS Energy Q2 2026 Earnings Call transcript (July 28, 2026); CenterPoint Energy Q2 2026 Earnings Call transcript (July 28, 2026). All transcripts sourced from Implied financial documents database.
Data Limitations: Q2 2024 Operating EPS and Revenue actuals for WEC were not available in Visible Alpha for this ticker and are marked N/A in the beat/miss tables. No open-market insider transactions (Form 4, codes P/S) were found for WEC in the May 5 – July 28, 2026 window via the SEC Form 4 database. Wisconsin Retail Electric Volume Q2 2026 consensus was not available in Visible Alpha and is marked N/A. A stock performance indexed chart was not generated due to data retrieval constraints in this session.