I'll research WM (Waste Management) before writing the earnings preview. Let me gather recent data.Let me read the most recent earnings materials and check for analyst expectations.Let me get the full-year 2026 guidance and prior-year Q2 comp, plus recent stock price and news.Let me get the FY2026 guidance (from Q4 2025 release) and the prior-year Q2 2025 results for comps.I have what I need. Let me pull the latest stock levels into perspective and write the preview.Here is my earnings preview.

WM (Waste Management) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview

Reports before market open Tuesday, July 28, 2026 (conference call 10:00 a.m. ET, July 29)

The one-line setup

WM heads into Q2 as a "show-me-the-harvest" story: after a two-year, multi-billion-dollar investment cycle in sustainability (RNG + recycling), fleet, and the Stericycle/Healthcare acquisition, 2026 is management's self-described "year of harvest." The core solid-waste machine remains exceptionally durable, but this print carries a tough year-over-year comp (last year's California wildfire cleanup volumes) and sets up the mid-year guidance refresh that investors most want to see.

1. Where the stock is

WM closed ~$237.94 on 7/27, up ~8.9% YTD and near 52-week highs, comfortably outpacing closest peer Republic Services (RSG, +3.2% YTD). The stock has re-rated on the "harvest" thesis and a nearly-30% projected FCF growth year.
Because expectations are elevated and the multiple is full, this is a quarter where beating isn't enough — the market will focus on the guidance raise/narrow and on volume momentum into 2H.

2. The comp problem: wildfires and volume optics

This is the single most important context for reading the headline. - Q2 2025 was inflated by ~$85M of Southern California wildfire cleanup revenue with high EBITDA flow-through. That does not repeat, creating a landfill/special-waste volume and margin headwind concentrated in Q2 (it largely anniversaries by August). - In Q1 2026, reported collection & disposal volume was -1.5%, but management stressed that ~half the shortfall was severe winter weather (10-day facility shutdowns on the East Coast). Underlying signals were better: MSW volume +2.7% (and reportedly ~4%+ in late April), special waste +6.7% ex-wildfire, and industrial/roll-off finally turning positive after ~6–7 negative quarters.

What to watch: Don't be spooked by an optically soft landfill/special-waste volume line — parse the ex-wildfire trend and the MSW/industrial trajectory. Management flagged these as leading indicators of underlying customer optimism. A clean beat on ex-wildfire special waste would be a strong macro tell.

3. Pricing and price/cost spread — the core margin engine

Q1 core price was 6.3% and C&D yield 3.9%, running ahead of the full-year guide (core price 5.4–5.8%, yield 3.2–3.6%). Residential (yield 6.3%) and MSW (yield 6.9%) surprised to the upside.
Price/cost spread was running >200 bps vs. the 150–200 bps target, with inflation ~3–3.5% (labor closer to 4%).
CPI dynamic to watch: ~40–45% of revenue is index-linked with a 1–2 quarter lag, so rising CPI should start flowing into resets in 2H — a potential 2027 tailwind. Any commentary on price durability into a firmer inflation backdrop matters.

What to watch: Whether yield/core price stays above the guided range, and whether the spread holds despite the wildfire-driven loss of high-margin landfill volume.

4. Margins — mind the accretion reclassification

Beginning 2026, WM moved landfill accretion (~$36M/qtr) out of operating expense/EBITDA into DD&A, which optically lifts EBITDA margin (~50–60 bps) versus the old methodology. All comparisons are "on a comparable basis" — recast the prior-year figures accordingly.
Q1 2026 delivered 29.8% adjusted EBITDA margin (+70 bps comparable) with opex <60% of revenue for a fifth straight quarter. Collection & disposal margin expanded ~110 bps adjusted.
CFO guided Q2 to a tough comp on the wildfire flow-through but still expects year-over-year margin expansion, with the 2H margin slope resembling 2025.

What to watch: Q2 2025 adjusted margin was 29.9%; on the new (accretion-excluded) basis plus underlying expansion, a print comfortably >31% would confirm the "structurally higher margin" narrative. Also watch corporate/other expense — Q1 was a deliberately heavy tech-investment/incentive-comp comp; management said that level is roughly the run-rate for the year.

5. Healthcare Solutions (Stericycle) — the inflection quarter?

This is the biggest swing factor on the story's credibility. - Q1 delivered ~12% adjusted EBITDA growth and +200 bps margin on SG&A synergies, despite revenue pressure from prior-year customer losses (only 1 of 3 expected hospital losses actually left). - Management explicitly guided to a revenue-growth inflection in 2H 2026 as the ERP stabilizes, customer credits reverse (DSO down 14 days, past-due receivables down two-thirds), and cross-selling ramps (~$27M annualized EBITDA benefit cited). - Synergy target of $300M run-rate by end-2027 is on track, with management hinting at possible upside to ~$325M.

What to watch: Early evidence of the promised revenue inflection (or at least stabilization), Healthcare margin (guided toward the ~17%+ adjusted zone and rising), and any raised synergy target. A miss here would dent the whole "accretive medical-waste platform" thesis.

6. Sustainability ramp — RNG and recycling

Renewable energy EBITDA more than doubled YoY in Q1 on 7 new RNG plants; 3 more expected online in Q2, rest in 2H. 80% of 2026 RNG volume is contracted (up from 60% at guidance).
Recycling EBITDA +18% in Q1 despite single-stream commodity prices down 27% YoY — proof that automation has structurally de-risked the segment. FY assumption is ~$70/ton (March exited at ~$69).
Combined Recycling + Renewable Energy + landfill-gas royalty EBITDA is guided to grow $235–255M in 2026, on a path toward ~$1B by 2027. RIN pricing (~$2.40) has held above WM's $2.00 investment thesis after the EPA's RVO.

What to watch: Confirmation of the $240–250M sustainability EBITDA contribution, RNG plant commissioning timing (management flagged some utility interconnect delays), and updated commodity/RIN price assumptions.

7. Cash flow, capital returns, and the balance sheet

Q1 FCF nearly doubled to $920M; FY guide is $3,750–3,850M (+29.4%) as sustainability capex falls to ~$200M (down >$400M).
Capital return plan: ~$3.5B total in 2026 — $1.5B dividends (raised $0.48 to $3.78/share) plus ~$2B buyback (back-half weighted, 55–60% in 2H; $344M repurchased in Q1).
Leverage back in the 2.5–3.0x target range (2.94x at Q1), giving M&A optionality; tuck-in pipeline guided to the high end of $100–200M or above.

What to watch: Buyback pace (is the 2H weighting still intact?), any acquisition closings (management said a deal was imminent), and reaffirmation of the FCF trajectory.

8. Tax rate — a quiet EPS swing factor

WM raised its full-year 2026 effective tax rate to ~23% after securing RNG production tax credits (worth ~$27M for 2025 and $30–35M annually 2026–2029). Q1's actual rate was only ~18% due to catch-up benefits, so the reported/adjusted rate should normalize higher in Q2 — a modeling nuance that can distort YoY EPS growth optics.

9. The mid-year guidance refresh — the real event

On the Q1 call, Jim Fish deferred a guidance decision: "we'll really kind of take a refresh of our guidance numbers at the end of Q2." With pricing running ahead of plan, FCF strong, and volumes recovering, the bar is set for at least a narrowing toward the high end of the FY ranges: - Revenue $26,425–26,625M (+5.2%) - Adjusted EBITDA $8,150–8,250M (+6.2% comparable; margin 30.8–31.0%) - FCF $3,750–3,850M

A raise (especially on FCF/EBITDA) would validate the harvest thesis; a mere reaffirmation despite the Q1 pricing beat could disappoint a full valuation.

My rough Q2 2026 framework (model-derived, not consensus)

Backing Q1's $1,853M adjusted EBITDA out of the FY midpoint leaves ~$2,116M average per quarter for Q2–Q4. Q2 is seasonally strong but carries the wildfire comp, so I'd frame:

Metric	Q2 2025 (comp)	My Q2 2026 ballpark	Notes
Revenue	$6,430M	~$6,650–6,800M	+3–5%; wildfire drag vs. price + sustainability
Adj. EBITDA	$1,923M	~$2,040–2,100M	+6–9%; margin ~31%+ on new basis
Adj. EBITDA margin	29.9%	~31.0–31.3%	boosted by accretion reclass + spread
Adj. EPS	$1.92	~$2.02–2.10	higher tax rate a partial offset
FCF (H1 cum.)	$1.29B	~$1.8–2.0B	tracking toward big FY step-up

Bottom line — what makes or breaks the print

Volume ex-wildfire (MSW/industrial acceleration) → the macro read and the 2H setup.
Guidance refresh → narrow-to-high-end or raise is the key catalyst given a full valuation.
Healthcare 2H revenue inflection proof points → the credibility swing factor.
Margin on the new accretion basis holding >31% despite the wildfire comp.
Sustainability EBITDA + RNG commissioning timing and capital-return cadence.

Risks skew toward "good quarter, but priced for it": the stock's YTD outperformance and elevated multiple mean the reaction likely hinges more on the guidance update and Healthcare/volume trajectory than on the headline EPS beat itself.

Note: figures above are drawn from WM's Q1 2026, Q4/FY2025, and Q2 2025 releases and the Q1 2026 call; the Q2 2026 table is my own estimate, not published company guidance or sell-side consensus.