Waste Management, Inc. (WM) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview

1. Earnings Preview

Key Takeaway: The setup is modestly constructive — consensus is an achievable bar with Q2 Operating EBITDA at ~$2.03B and Adj. EPS at ~$1.98, and the single biggest swing factor is whether wildfire volume comps (~$85M revenue headwind vs. Q2 2025) are offset by Healthcare Solutions inflection and RNG ramp.

Heading into Q2 2026, WM faces its toughest year-over-year comparison of the year — management explicitly flagged the ~$85M wildfire revenue headwind from Q2 2025 — yet the underlying business is tracking well, with special waste ex-wildfire running strongly, industrial volumes returning to modest positive growth after six-to-seven consecutive negative quarters, and Healthcare Solutions on track for an H2 revenue inflection. Consensus estimates have barely moved since the Q1 print (Operating EBITDA up just ~$2M, EPS up ~$0.003 vs. the post-Q1 baseline), suggesting the Street has already absorbed the wildfire comp and is not pricing in meaningful upside. Three additional RNG facilities were expected online in Q2, and the IRS production tax credit confirmation (~$30–35M annually through 2029) provides a structural EPS tailwind that may not be fully reflected in consensus. The stock has gained ~4.6% since the Q1 print (vs. RSG +4.2%, WCN +3.6%), suggesting the market has partially priced in execution continuity but not a material beat. The wildcard is Healthcare Solutions: if customer credits continue declining faster than expected and revenue growth inflects toward the guided mid-single-digit H2 exit rate, that could be the positive surprise that drives the stock — conversely, any sign of renewed billing disruption or customer churn would be the key downside risk.

2. KPIs & Consensus Expectations

Key Takeaway: Consensus is a manageable bar — Operating EBITDA of $2.03B implies ~5.7% YoY growth against a tough wildfire comp, and core price at ~6.1% remains the more reliable beat lever; volume growth (consensus: -0.14%) is the bigger swing factor given macro uncertainty flagged by peer WCN.

Table 1 — Q2 2026 Current Quarter Snapshot

Sources: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data

Table 2 — Beat/Miss History: Last 8 Quarters (Top 2 KPIs: Operating EBITDA & Adj. EPS)

Pattern: WM has beaten Operating EBITDA consensus in 5 of the last 8 quarters, with beats concentrated in periods of strong special waste and wildfire-related volumes; EPS beats have been more consistent (5 of 8) driven by tax benefits and buybacks, though Q4 2024 and Q3 2025 saw notable EPS misses tied to integration costs and volume softness. Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data.

3. Guidance & Commentary Evolution

Key Takeaway: Guidance has been unchanged since the Q1 2026 earnings call (April 28, 2026) — no post-earnings 8-K or conference update has revised numbers — but tone has been constructive, with management flagging Q2 as the toughest comp of the year and expressing confidence in H2 margin lift and Healthcare Solutions revenue inflection.

4. Guidance vs. Estimate Revision Tracker

Key Takeaway: Estimates have been remarkably stable since the Q1 print — Q2 Operating EBITDA consensus moved up just ~$2M and FY 2026 EBITDA up ~$6M — suggesting the Street has fully absorbed the wildfire comp headwind and is not pricing in incremental upside from RNG ramp or Healthcare Solutions inflection; the gap between consensus and guidance midpoint is minimal, leaving little cushion if volumes disappoint.

Estimates have been essentially flat since the Q1 print, with all key metrics moving less than 0.3% — the Street has fully digested the wildfire comp headwind and is not pricing in incremental upside from RNG ramp, Healthcare Solutions inflection, or the IRS production tax credit benefit (~$30–35M annually through 2029). Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data.

5. Stock Performance

Key Takeaway: WM has gained ~4.6% since the Q1 2026 earnings date (April 28), modestly outperforming RSG (+4.2%) and WCN (+3.6%), with the move driven primarily by multiple re-rating and FCF inflection confidence rather than estimate revisions (which were flat); the stock is not pricing in a material beat, leaving room for upside if Healthcare Solutions or RNG surprise positively.

WM vs. RSG vs. WCN — Indexed Price Performance Since Q1 2026 Earnings (April 28, 2026 = 100). Source: Stock Price Data.

WM closed at $227.35 on April 28 (Q1 earnings day) and at $237.90 on July 28, 2026, a gain of +$10.55 / +4.64%. RSG gained +4.2% and WCN gained +3.6% over the same period. The sector moved broadly in line, suggesting WM’s performance reflects sector-level re-rating rather than company-specific alpha. Key events during the period: (1) May 13 — COO appointment (Tara Hemmer) and Healthcare Solutions leadership transition (Carrasco retirement); (2) May 14 — shareholder vote approving executive pay and expanded stock plan; (3) July 7 — notable sector-wide rally (+3.5% for WM on the day) likely driven by macro/rate sentiment; (4) July 16 — WM hit an intra-period high of $242.25 before pulling back modestly into the print. Source: Stock Price Data.

6. Peer Commentaries — Q2 2026 Read-Throughs

Key Takeaway: WCN’s Q2 2026 print (July 22) is the most direct read-through — solid pricing (+6.7% total price) but volume weakness (-1.9%) driven by macro uncertainty and fuel-related churn is a cautionary signal for WM’s volume line; however, WCN’s July commentary (special waste, C&D, MSW all improving) and CWST’s “normal seasonal uptick” tone suggest Q2 was the trough and H2 should be better.

WCN — Q2 2026 Earnings (Reported July 22–23, 2026)

Relevance to WM: WCN is WM’s closest direct peer in solid waste collection, transfer, and disposal. Its Q2 2026 results are the most timely and direct read-through for WM’s current reporting quarter.

• Pricing strong, volumes soft: WCN reported total solid waste price of 6.7% (core price 5.6%, fuel/material surcharges 1.1%), beating expectations. Volumes were down 1.9%, reflecting macro uncertainty and fuel-related churn.
• Read-through for WM: WM’s Q2 consensus volume of -0.14% is already below WCN’s -1.9%, but WCN’s volume weakness (construction pauses, fuel surcharge churn) is a risk signal. WM’s core price of ~6.1% consensus is directionally consistent with WCN’s 5.6% core price.
• July trends encouraging: WCN noted special waste activity in July was “impressive,” C&D tons up YoY for first time in 10 quarters, and MSW up nominally for four consecutive weeks in July — suggesting Q2 was the trough. WCN raised full-year EBITDA guidance to $3.33–3.34B (from $3.30–3.325B).
• Fuel surcharge dynamics: WCN noted the rapid fuel spike (from ~$60 to $120+/barrel in 4–6 weeks) caused public companies to react quickly with surcharges, likely adding 10–15 bps of volume churn. WM faces the same dynamic but has a more diversified revenue base (Healthcare, RNG) to offset.
• RNG ahead of plan: WCN’s RNG projects are “ahead of expectations,” with capital outlays on track to be essentially complete by year-end. Positive read-through for WM’s RNG ramp narrative.
• Recycled commodities up: WCN’s recycled commodity basket up 10–15% from year-end; landfill gas/RIN values also stepped up 15% sequentially from Q1. Positive read-through for WM’s recycling and renewable energy segments.
• AI pricing tool delivering: WCN’s AI-linked commercial pricing tool (fully deployed Q4 2025) has yielded ~$20M EBITDA improvement on a run-rate basis — validates WM’s own AI/digital transformation investment thesis.

CWST (Casella Waste Systems) — Stifel Investor Summit (June 10, 2026) & William Blair Conference (June 2, 2026)

Relevance to WM: CWST operates primarily in the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic, overlapping with WM’s key markets. Commentary on landfill capacity, pricing dynamics, and volume trends is directly relevant to WM’s collection and disposal business.

• Stable environment, normal seasonal uptick: CWST CFO described Q2 as showing “normal seasonal uptick across the business” and “feeling pretty confident about our plan for the year.” Q1 was “one of the most challenging winters in the northeast in 20 years” but trends “improved significantly through the spring.” Positive read-through for WM’s Q2 volume recovery narrative.
• Pricing backdrop positive: CWST noted a “positive pricing backdrop” with ~70% of customers not CPI-linked, allowing pricing at will. Disposal prices in Metro Boston/New York at ~$100–$110/tonne. CWST implemented fuel surcharges in Mid-Atlantic markets “over the last three months” (Q2 2026) with “very little pushback.” Consistent with WM’s pricing power narrative.
• Landfill capacity tightening: CWST highlighted that “multiple large landfills in the northeast will be closing” over the next five years, with “no new capacity coming online other than two expansions that Casella is doing.” This structural scarcity is a long-term tailwind for WM’s landfill pricing power.
• Special waste and C&D mixed: CWST noted “continued weakness in contaminated soils and special waste streams” but C&D volumes up over 10% in Q1. Mixed read-through for WM’s special waste line, though WM’s Q1 special waste ex-wildfire was +6.7%.
• Mid-Atlantic integration synergies: CWST completed order-to-cash system migrations in June 2026 and is now collapsing routes and taking trucks off the road. $15M synergy target over three years. Validates WM’s own Healthcare Solutions integration playbook.

CLH (Clean Harbors) — Wells Fargo Industrials Conference (June 9) & Stifel Investor Summit (June 10, 2026)

Relevance to WM: CLH operates in hazardous/industrial waste — less direct overlap with WM’s solid waste business, but relevant for industrial activity trends, macro read-through, and the broader waste industry environment.

• Industrial green shoots: CLH noted “more opportunity than anticipated” in Q2, with PMI in May at its highest in 4 years and ISM in expansion mode for 4–5 consecutive months. “From a pipeline standpoint, from a volume standpoint, things are picking up.” Positive macro read-through for WM’s industrial roll-off and special waste volumes.
• Industrial services still soft but improving: CLH’s industrial services (refinery/chemical turnarounds) remains soft as customers run plants hard and defer maintenance, but CLH sees “cyclical signs of that business picking up” and expects more maintenance required in H2 2026 and “certainly in ’27.” Consistent with WM’s observation that industrial volumes returned to modest positive growth in Q1 2026.
• PFAS opportunity growing: CLH’s PFAS pipeline is “extraordinarily strong” and growing faster than the initial 20% growth target. While not a direct WM read-through, it signals robust environmental services demand that benefits the broader waste sector.
• Pricing power intact: CLH noted incinerator pricing “has never gone on sale” and technical services pricing power remains “mid- to high single digits.” Consistent with WM’s pricing discipline narrative.

7. Material News & Developments

Key Takeaway: The most important development since Q1 earnings is the COO appointment of Tara Hemmer (May 13) — a 27-year WM veteran who led the sustainability build-out — which signals operational continuity and accelerated technology transformation; the simultaneous retirement of Healthcare Solutions President Rafael Carrasco (effective July 17) is the key watch item for integration execution risk.

• May 13, 2026 — COO Appointment: Tara Hemmer named EVP & Chief Operating Officer. Hemmer, 27-year WM veteran and former Chief Sustainability Officer, takes over operational platform from President John Morris (who voluntarily resigned the COO title). She will also continue leading Sustainability businesses (Recycling, Renewable Energy, Advisory Services). Implication: Continuity of operational excellence and sustainability strategy; her deep familiarity with RNG and recycling assets is a positive for the “harvest phase” execution.
• May 13, 2026 — Healthcare Solutions Leadership Transition: Rafael Carrasco (SVP Enterprise Strategy & President, WM Healthcare Solutions) announced retirement effective July 17, 2026. Healthcare Solutions will report directly to President John Morris post-retirement. Implication: Key integration risk — Carrasco led the Stericycle acquisition and integration; transition mid-year during a critical revenue inflection period warrants monitoring. Management framed it positively, citing a “strong foundation” for future growth.
• May 14, 2026 — Shareholder Vote: Shareholders approved executive compensation and expanded stock purchase plan. Implication: Routine governance; confirms shareholder alignment with management’s capital allocation strategy (including $2B buyback program).
• June 26, 2026 — Q2 Earnings Date Announcement: WM set July 28, 2026 (after market close) as Q2 2026 earnings date, with conference call July 29 at 10:00 AM ET. No pre-announcement or guidance revision accompanied the date-setting. Implication: Absence of a pre-announcement is a mild positive signal — no need to warn on results.
• July 22–23, 2026 — WCN Q2 2026 Earnings (Peer Read-Through): Waste Connections reported Q2 results with revenue and EBITDA growth exceeding 6%, raised full-year EBITDA guidance to $3.33–3.34B. Core price of 5.6%, volumes -1.9%. Implication: Pricing environment remains constructive; volume softness from fuel surcharge churn and macro uncertainty is a sector-wide dynamic that WM will need to address on its call.
• April 28, 2026 — IRS Production Tax Credit Confirmation (Q1 Earnings): IRS confirmed WM’s RNG facilities qualify for production tax credits (~$27M for 2025 tax year; $30–35M annually 2026–2029). Implication: Structural EPS tailwind of ~$0.08–0.10/share annually through 2029; effective tax rate guided to ~23% for FY 2026 (vs. 18% in Q1). This benefit may not be fully reflected in consensus.
• Analyst Rating/PT Changes (Post Q1 Print): Multiple brokerages updated targets after Q1 earnings. TD Cowen raised PT to $275 (Buy); JPMorgan raised to $270 (Overweight); Robert W. Baird raised to $260 (Outperform); Wells Fargo lowered to $268 (Overweight); RBC raised to $240 (Sector Perform). Consensus rating: Moderate Buy; average PT ~$256.70 (16 Buy, 7 Hold). Implication: Broad analyst support but stock trading below average PT (~$238 vs. $257 avg PT) suggests room for upside if Q2 delivers.

8. Insider Transaction Activity

Key Takeaway: No open-market buys or discretionary sells by executives since the Q1 print — all transactions are either equity award grants (code A) or routine tax-withholding shares (code F); the only open-market sale was by departing Healthcare Solutions President Carrasco (June 5), which is retirement-driven and not a signal on business outlook.

Summary: No open-market buys or discretionary sells by any executive or director since the Q1 2026 print. All transactions are routine equity award grants (annual director grants, COO promotion RSUs) or tax-withholding events. The only open-market sale (Carrasco, June 5) is clearly retirement-driven following his announced departure. Insider activity is neutral — no signal either way on the Q2 print. Source: Insider Transaction Data (Form 4 filings).