Waste Management (WM) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview

Ticker: WM Earnings Date: July 28, 2026 (after market close); Conference Call July 29, 2026 at 10:00 a.m. ET Prepared: July 28, 2026

Earnings Preview

Key Takeaway: The setup into Q2 2026 is modestly constructive — consensus sits at a manageable bar with the wildfire comp headwind well-telegraphed — but the single biggest swing factor is whether operating EBITDA margin can hold near 30% despite the ~$85M revenue drag from lapping prior-year wildfire volumes.

Heading into Q2 2026, WM faces a well-understood but real headwind: approximately $85 million in wildfire-related revenue that benefited Q2 2025 will not repeat, creating a tough year-over-year margin comparison that management explicitly flagged on the Q1 call. Consensus has absorbed this, with the EBITDA estimate of ~$2.03B implying roughly 30.3% margin — a modest step-up from Q1's 29.8% adjusted margin but below the 30.6% posted in Q3 2025. Management's tone at the June 3 William Blair conference was constructive: the CFO reiterated the "year of harvest" framing, confirmed 80% of RNG volume is locked in for 2026, and described Healthcare Solutions as tracking ahead of internal plan with cross-sell already generating ~$28M of EBITDA. Estimate revisions have been essentially flat since the Q1 print — the Q2 EPS consensus of ~$1.98 is nearly unchanged from the post-Q1 baseline of ~$1.98, suggesting the Street is neither chasing upside nor cutting numbers. The stock has outperformed the S&P 500 since the Q1 print (+4.6% vs. +3.9%) but lagged XLI (+7.2%), trading at ~13.9x NTM EV/EBITDA — a slight compression from 14.7x a year ago, consistent with the market pricing in a more normalized growth profile. The key wildcard is volume trajectory: management guided to low-single-digit industrial growth and improving commercial trends, and peer WCN's Q2 beat (revenue +6.4%, EBITDA margin 32.8%) with raised full-year guidance is a positive read-through for the broader waste sector heading into the print.

KPIs & Consensus Expectations

Key Takeaway: Consensus sets a manageable bar on EBITDA and EPS, with the wildfire comp headwind already embedded in estimates. Operating EBITDA margin is the bigger swing factor — any upside from pricing or Healthcare Solutions cost discipline could drive a beat, while volume softness or commodity weakness could pressure the print.

Table 1 — Current Quarter Snapshot (Q2 2026)

Sources: Visible Alpha consensus and actuals data. All consensus figures as of July 28, 2026.

Table 2 — Beat/Miss History (Last 8 Quarters)

Top 2 KPIs: Operating EBITDA and Adjusted EPS (Diluted – Operating)

Pattern: WM has beaten or met Operating EBITDA consensus in 7 of the last 8 quarters, with the lone Q1 2026 EBITDA miss driven by weather and wildfire comp headwinds; Adj. EPS has beaten in 6 of 8 quarters, with the Q1 2026 EPS beat (+12.4%) driven by a lower-than-expected tax rate from RNG production tax credits. Source: Visible Alpha consensus and actuals data.

Guidance & Commentary Evolution

Key Takeaway: WM reaffirmed full-year guidance at Q1 earnings (April 28) and management's tone at the June 3 William Blair conference was incrementally positive on Healthcare Solutions and RNG, with no formal guidance revision. The bar is unchanged but confidence in achieving it has risen.

Guidance vs. Estimate Revision Tracker

Key Takeaway: Estimates have been remarkably stable since the Q1 print — Q2 EPS consensus is essentially flat and FY EBITDA consensus is within 0.1% of the post-Q1 baseline — suggesting the Street has fully absorbed the wildfire comp headwind and is not pricing in incremental risk or upside. The gap between consensus and guidance midpoint is negligible, leaving the print as a clean execution test.

Estimates have been essentially flat since the Q1 print, with Q2 and FY revisions of less than 0.3% across all key metrics. This stability reflects the Street's confidence in WM's guidance framework and suggests the wildfire comp headwind is fully priced in. Source: Visible Alpha consensus and actuals data.

Stock Performance

Key Takeaway: WM has outperformed the S&P 500 since the Q1 print (+4.6% vs. +3.9%) but lagged the XLI industrials ETF (+7.2%), consistent with WM's defensive/utility-like characteristics underperforming in a risk-on industrial rally. The 1-month re-rating (+6.7% price, +4.9% EV/EBITDA multiple expansion) suggests recent momentum is multiple-driven rather than estimate-driven, which could be fragile if Q2 disappoints.

Chart: WM vs. XLI vs. S&P 500 — Indexed Performance Since Q1 2026 Earnings (April 28, 2026)

WM vs. XLI vs. S&P 500 — Indexed to 100 at April 28, 2026 (Q1 2026 Earnings Date). WM: dark navy; XLI (Industrials ETF): mid-grey dashed; S&P 500: light grey dashed. Source: Yahoo Finance.

Performance Summary (April 28 – July 28, 2026): WM +4.6% ($227.35 → $237.90) | XLI +7.2% ($170.98 → $183.20) | SPY +3.9% ($711.69 → $739.09). WM's 1-month performance of +6.7% was primarily multiple-driven (EV/EBITDA expanded ~+4.9% over 1 month), while the 3-month and 6-month windows show modest multiple compression, suggesting the longer-term driver has been estimate stability rather than re-rating. The stock trades at 13.9x NTM EV/EBITDA vs. 14.7x a year ago, reflecting normalization from peak sustainability-investment premium. Source: Yahoo Finance; Visible Alpha stock performance decomposition data.

Material News & Developments

Key Takeaway: The most important development since Q1 earnings is the June 3 William Blair conference, where management provided incrementally positive color on Healthcare Solutions integration progress and RNG volume lock-in — both of which reduce downside risk heading into the Q2 print.

• June 3, 2026 — William Blair Growth Stock Conference: CFO David Reed and Chief Customer Officer Mike Watson provided constructive Q2/FY commentary. Key incremental data points: (1) residential volume expected ~-3% for FY 2026; (2) industrial volumes forecasting low-single-digit growth; (3) 80% of RNG volume locked in for 2026 (up from 60% at guidance); (4) Healthcare Solutions cross-sell generating ~$28M EBITDA; (5) synergy target potentially $325M vs. $300M goal; (6) landfill gas-to-electricity for data centers being actively evaluated as a new monetization pathway.
• April 28, 2026 — Q1 2026 Earnings Release: WM reported Q1 adj. EPS of $1.81 (beat vs. $1.61 consensus) and operating EBITDA of $1,853M (slight miss vs. $1,872M). FCF nearly doubled YoY to $920M. IRS confirmed RNG production tax credits qualify, providing ~$30–35M annual tax benefit through 2029. Leverage returned to 2.5–3.0x target range; $344M in share buybacks resumed. Management reaffirmed full-year guidance.
• April 29, 2026 — Q1 2026 Earnings Call: Management flagged Q2 as the toughest margin comp quarter due to ~$85M wildfire revenue from Q2 2025 not repeating (~75% of wildfire activity fell in Q2). Expects H2 margin trajectory to improve, similar to 2025 seasonality. MSW volume was over +4% positive in the week prior to the call. Special waste pipeline described as constructive.
• June 26, 2026 — Q2 2026 Earnings Date Announcement: WM confirmed Q2 results will be released after market close on July 28, 2026, with conference call on July 29 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
• Ongoing — RNG Volume Lock-In and Pricing: 80% of 2026 RNG volume is contracted (up from 60% at January guidance). Blended contracted price running just below the long-term $26/MMBtu target. RIN pricing holding in a range consistent with strong economics. EPA RVO slightly raised for 2026–2027, supporting RIN pricing above long-term investment thesis assumptions.
• Ongoing — Healthcare Solutions Integration Progress: ERP fully stabilized; on-time performance improved from upper-80s/lower-90s at acquisition to ~97%; DSO down 14 days; past-due receivables down two-thirds; call center volumes down ~30% YoY; service reliability improved from mid-80s to upper-90s. SG&A reduced from upper-20s% to upper-teens% of revenue.
• Ongoing — Landfill Gas-to-Electricity / Data Center Opportunity: WM is evaluating landfill gas-to-electricity conversion across its portfolio as electricity demand from data centers grows. Lower capex and faster deployment than RNG; represents a new monetization pathway beyond the original RNG investment thesis.

Peer Commentary: Current-Quarter Read-Throughs (Q2 2026)

Key Takeaway: Peer commentary from the last 60 days is broadly constructive for WM's Q2 print. Waste Connections' Q2 beat (revenue +6.4%, EBITDA margin 32.8% with 70 bps underlying expansion) is the most direct positive read-through, confirming solid pricing power and margin resilience despite fuel cost headwinds. Casella Waste and Clean Harbors conference commentary from June confirmed normal seasonal volume recovery and improving industrial demand — both supportive for WM's volume trajectory.

Note: Only commentary about Q2 2026 (current reporting quarter) or forward-looking statements made after peers' last earnings are included below. Retrospective Q1 2025 or Q1 2026 results-only discussion is excluded.

Waste Connections (WCN) — Q2 2026 Earnings (July 22–23, 2026)

Relevance: WCN is WM's closest direct peer in solid waste collection, transfer, and disposal. WCN reports on a calendar quarter basis (Q2 ended June 30), making its results a direct read-through for WM's Q2 2026 print.

• Revenue beat: $2.562B, above expectations, +6.4% YoY. Solid waste organic growth from total price of 6.7% (core price 5.6% + surcharges 1.1%) outpaced expectations. Average yield of 4.6%, consistent with Q1 levels, reflecting benefits from AI price optimization tool deployed late 2025.
• EBITDA beat: Adjusted EBITDA $840.1M, above expectations, +6.8% YoY. Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 32.8% on 70 bps of underlying margin expansion, overcoming cost pressures from rapidly spiking fuel costs and lower commodity values.
• Volume: Solid waste volumes down 1.9%, reflecting ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and elevated fuel costs impacting construction activity. Roll-off pulls down 2%, similar to recent quarters. However, management noted 'impressive activity in July' for special waste, C&D tons up 1% YoY (first increase in 10 quarters), and MSW up nominally for the last four consecutive weeks in July.
• Raised full-year guidance: Revenue now $10.02–$10.05B (up $100–$120M from February); Adjusted EBITDA $3.33–$3.34B (up from $3.30–$3.325B). Sees 'potential for upside from improving commodity-related trends and incremental acquisitions.'
• RNG upside: Getting $15–20M more in RNG contribution in 2026 than factored into full-year guidance. RNG capital outlays on track to be essentially complete by year-end.
• WM Read-Through: Strongly positive. WCN's pricing power (5.6% core price), margin expansion despite fuel headwinds, and raised guidance all support WM's ability to deliver on its Q2 EBITDA target. Volume softness (-1.9%) is a mild caution, but WCN's July improvement commentary is encouraging for WM's volume trajectory.

Casella Waste Systems (CWST) — June 2026 Conference Commentary

Relevance: Casella is a Northeast-focused solid waste operator. Conference commentary from June 2–10, 2026 provides current-quarter color on pricing, volumes, and macro conditions relevant to WM's Q2 2026 setup.

• Volume recovery (June 2 — William Blair Conference): CFO Ned Coletta noted 'normal seasonal uptick across the business' entering Q2, with volumes 'generally in line with budget.' Q1 weather headwinds (described as 'one of the most challenging winters in the northeast in 20 years') have 'improved significantly through the spring.' Landfill volumes, MSW, C&D roll-off polls all 'trending positively seasonally.'
• Pricing (June 2 — William Blair Conference): Expects third-party pricing 'in the fours, between 4 and 5%' for 2026. Rapidly introduced energy and environmental fee and recycling fee in the Mid-Atlantic over the last three months to offset fuel cost spikes, with 'very little pushback from the marketplace.'
• Fuel cost management (June 10 — Stifel Investor Summit): Diesel spiked 'nearly 50% year over year.' Company 'hit the brakes a tiny bit' to ensure fuel surcharges were in place across the entire customer base. Synergies from GFL Mid-Atlantic acquisition expected to accelerate in H2 2026.
• WM Read-Through: Modestly positive. Seasonal volume recovery entering Q2 and pricing discipline are consistent with WM's own Q2 setup. Fuel cost headwinds are a shared challenge, but WM's larger scale and fuel surcharge mechanisms provide similar protection.

Clean Harbors (CLH) — June 2026 Conference Commentary

Relevance: Clean Harbors is a hazardous waste and environmental services company. While not a direct solid waste peer, CLH's commentary on industrial demand, special waste, and macro conditions provides useful read-through for WM's industrial and special waste volumes.

• Industrial demand improving (June 9 — Wells Fargo Conference): CFO Eric Dugas noted 'some better large-scale economic indicators around ISM and things and maybe some of the chemical space picking up as well.' ISM showed 'fourth or fifth month in a row where you saw kind of being in expansion mode.' Described as 'early days' but 'starting to see some green shoots come up in our business.'
• PFAS volumes exceeding expectations (June 9): 'Through Q1 and halfway through Q2, I think we're seeing more opportunity than we had anticipated. And I would expect the growth rate around PFAS to be greater than [the 20% target].' PFAS pipeline increased 25–35%.
• Pricing discipline (June 10 — Stifel Investor Summit): Co-CEO Michael Battles noted 'incinerator pricing has never gone on sale' and 'never gone backwards.' Tech services pricing power 'mid- to high single digits historically.' Safety-Kleen branch business growing at 'consistent 7% plus top line growth rate.'
• Industrial services turnarounds still soft (June 10): Refineries and chemical plants 'running all out,' leading to shorter turnarounds (duration reduced ~33% over last year). Company 'has not planned any improvement in the back half' for industrial services in 2026 guidance. Expects improvement 'hopefully, latter half of '26, but certainly in '27.'
• WM Read-Through: Modestly positive. Improving ISM and industrial activity support WM's expectation of low-single-digit industrial roll-off volume growth. PFAS and special waste demand trends are constructive for WM's special waste pipeline. The industrial services softness is less relevant to WM's core solid waste business.

Peer Read-Through Summary Table

Insider Transaction Activity

Key Takeaway: Insider activity since the Q1 earnings print is minimal — only one open-market sale was disclosed, by the SVP of Enterprise Strategy, which is not a top-tier executive signal. There are no open-market buys and no unusual clustering of sales. The absence of significant insider selling ahead of the print is a mild positive signal.

Source: SEC Form 4 filings database. Window: April 28, 2026 – July 28, 2026 (since Q1 2026 earnings). Only open-market buys (code P) and open-market sales (code S) are included. No Form 144 filings or 10b5-1 plan initiations were identified for WM in this window. The absence of C-suite selling and the lack of any open-market buying are both consistent with a neutral-to-slightly-positive insider signal heading into the Q2 print.