ABNB Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-06

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
ABNB Report Revenue BEAT pred ~$3.62B vs. cons $3.58B MEDIUM
ABNB Report Nights & Seats Booked IN-LINE pred ~145M (+8%) vs. cons ~144.5M (+7.5%) MEDIUM
ABNB Report Adj. EBITDA BEAT pred ~$1.12B vs. cons $1.07B MEDIUM
ABNB Guide Q3 Revenue guide LOWER guide ~$4.55B vs. cons $4.63B (2026Q3) MEDIUM
ABNB Guide Q3 Nights growth guide LOWER guide ~+7% vs. cons ~+8% (2026Q3) MEDIUM
ABNB Guide FY26 Adj. EBITDA margin UNCHANGED guide 'at least 35%' vs. cons ~35.5% (FY2026) LOW
ABNB Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -5.0% MEDIUM
ABNB Return 5-day cumulative residual -7.0% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) Stock ran ~+11% (from $138 on 7/23 to $152) into a raised bar, setting up a sell-the-news. A likely Q2 beat is offset by a conservative Q3 guide (World Cup bookings skew late, tougher H2 comps, RNPL lapping) plus S&M-driven margin deceleration. Out-period math forces implicit H2 estimate cuts even after the beat, and peer read-through (Booking/Uber sold off on soft guides) reinforces downward revisions, so the initial drop follows through rather than fades. Insider selling (Gebbia ~$234M, CFO, Blecharczyk) adds headline pressure. LOW