{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Revenue",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$3.62B vs. cons $3.58B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Nights & Seats Booked",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~145M (+8%) vs. cons ~144.5M (+7.5%)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Adj. EBITDA",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.12B vs. cons $1.07B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Q3 Revenue guide",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~$4.55B vs. cons $4.63B (2026Q3)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q3 Nights growth guide",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~+7% vs. cons ~+8% (2026Q3)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 Adj. EBITDA margin",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide 'at least 35%' vs. cons ~35.5% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -5.0,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -7.0,
  "day5_path": "FOLLOW-THROUGH",
  "day5_rationale": "Stock ran ~+11% (from $138 on 7/23 to $152) into a raised bar, setting up a sell-the-news. A likely Q2 beat is offset by a conservative Q3 guide (World Cup bookings skew late, tougher H2 comps, RNPL lapping) plus S&M-driven margin deceleration. Out-period math forces implicit H2 estimate cuts even after the beat, and peer read-through (Booking/Uber sold off on soft guides) reinforces downward revisions, so the initial drop follows through rather than fades. Insider selling (Gebbia ~$234M, CFO, Blecharczyk) adds headline pressure.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}