ABNB Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-06

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
ABNB Report Q2 2026 Revenue BEAT pred ~$3.63B vs. cons $3.58B MEDIUM
ABNB Report Q2 2026 GAAP/Adjusted EPS MISS pred ~$1.18 vs. cons $1.23 MEDIUM
ABNB Report Q2 2026 Gross Booking Value (GBV) BEAT pred ~$26.7B vs. cons $26.4B LOW
ABNB Guide Q3 2026 Revenue guidance (World Cup ramp) BETTER guide ~$4.30B vs. cons $4.18B (Q3 2026) LOW
ABNB Guide Q3 2026 Nights & Seats Booked growth BETTER guide ~10-11% Y/Y vs. cons ~9% Y/Y (Q3 2026) LOW
ABNB Guide FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA margin UNCHANGED guide ~35% vs. cons ~35% (FY2026) MEDIUM
ABNB Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -1.8% MEDIUM
ABNB Return 5-day cumulative residual -2.8% (FADE) Stock already ran hard into the print (52-week highs, PT hikes), so even a revenue/GBV beat is largely priced in, while the recurring EPS-miss pattern (heavy reinvestment/SBC) and the fact that the true World Cup P&L benefit shifts into Q3 guidance rather than Q2 actuals leaves little immediate upside catalyst; as sell-side models tougher 2H comps (RNPL anniversary, Middle East drag) into out-quarters, estimate revisions likely trim post-print, fading an initial pop. MEDIUM