ABNB Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-06

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
ABNB Report Q2 2026 Revenue BEAT pred ~$3.63B vs. cons $3.58B MEDIUM
ABNB Report Q2 2026 Nights and Seats Booked IN-LINE pred ~145.6M vs. cons 145.0M MEDIUM
ABNB Report Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA BEAT pred ~$1.25B vs. cons $1.22B MEDIUM
ABNB Guide Q3 2026 Revenue LOWER guide ~$4.55B vs. cons $4.61B (Q3 2026) MEDIUM
ABNB Guide Full-Year Revenue Growth UNCHANGED guide ~14.0% vs. cons 14.1% (FY 2026) MEDIUM
ABNB Guide Full-Year Adjusted EBITDA Margin LOWER guide ~35.0% vs. cons 35.5% (FY 2026) MEDIUM
ABNB Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -3.2% MEDIUM
ABNB Return 5-day cumulative residual -4.6% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) Q2 beats are outweighed by guide ~$4.55B vs. cons $4.61B for Q3 2026 and FY margin guide ~35.0% vs. cons 35.5%; the implied out-period cuts drive the residual from ~-3.2% on day 1 to ~-4.6% cumulatively by day 5. MEDIUM