ABNB Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-06

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
ABNB Report Revenue BEAT pred ~$3.62B vs. cons $3.57B MEDIUM
ABNB Report Adjusted EBITDA BEAT pred ~$1.22B vs. cons $1.19B MEDIUM
ABNB Report Nights & Seats Booked BEAT pred ~146.5M vs. cons 144.8M MEDIUM
ABNB Guide Q3 2026 Revenue guidance LOWER guide ~$4.53B midpoint vs. cons $4.58B (Q3 2026) MEDIUM
ABNB Guide FY 2026 Revenue growth guidance UNCHANGED guide ~14.5% YoY midpoint vs. cons 14.5% YoY (FY 2026) MEDIUM
ABNB Guide FY 2026 Adjusted EBITDA margin guidance UNCHANGED guide ~35.0% vs. cons 35.0% (FY 2026) HIGH
ABNB Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -3.5% MEDIUM
ABNB Return 5-day cumulative residual -5.5% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) Q2 revenue, EBITDA, and nights beat modestly, but a ~$4.53B Q3 revenue guide versus ~$4.58B consensus signals tougher post-World-Cup and Reserve Now, Pay Later comparisons; the implied H2 revenue math pulls FY estimates and valuation expectations lower. MEDIUM