ABNB Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-06

Ticker	Report or Guide	KPI	Prediction	Answer	Confidence
ABNB	Report	Total Revenue (Q2 2026)	BEAT	pred ~$3,640M vs. cons $3,579M	MEDIUM
ABNB	Report	Nights & Experiences Booked (Q2 2026)	IN-LINE	pred ~147M vs. cons 145.7M	MEDIUM
ABNB	Report	Adj. EBITDA (Q2 2026)	BEAT	pred ~$1,270M vs. cons $1,229M	MEDIUM
ABNB	Guide	Q3 2026 Revenue (Q3 2026)	LOWER	guide ~$4,000M midpoint vs. cons $4,079M	MEDIUM
ABNB	Guide	FY 2026 Revenue (FY 2026)	UNCHANGED	guide ~$14,000M midpoint vs. cons $13,964M	MEDIUM
ABNB	Guide	FY 2026 Adj. EBITDA Margin (FY 2026)	UNCHANGED	guide >=35% reaffirmed vs. cons ~35.4%	MEDIUM
ABNB	Return	Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500)	-1.5%	—	MEDIUM
ABNB	Return	5-day cumulative residual	-4.5% (FADE)	FADE — Q3 guide below cons pulls Q3 estimates lower; 5-day drift negative as sell-side revises down	MEDIUM