| ADM |
Report |
Adjusted EPS (Q2'26) |
BEAT |
pred ~$1.40 vs. cons ~$1.22 |
MEDIUM |
| ADM |
Report |
Total segment operating profit (Q2'26) |
BEAT |
pred ~$1.05B vs. cons ~$0.96B |
MEDIUM |
| ADM |
Report |
AS&O / Crushing operating profit (Q2'26) |
BEAT |
pred ~$430M AS&O (Crush ~+$180M vs. Q1 -$79M) vs. cons ~$390M |
LOW |
| ADM |
Guide |
FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$4.15-$4.70 (mid $4.43) maintained vs. cons ~$4.50 (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| ADM |
Guide |
H2 2026 outlook / crush margin cadence |
LOWER |
guide H2 ~51% split (~$2.25 implied) vs. cons ~$2.35 (H2 2026) |
MEDIUM |
| ADM |
Guide |
Nutrition FY operating profit / 45Z benefit |
BETTER |
guide 45Z ~$150M vs. prior ~$100M, Nutrition FY up vs. cons ~flat (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| ADM |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-2.5% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| ADM |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-4.0% (FADE) |
The Q2 beat is largely mechanical (~$0.45 of well-telegraphed mark-to-market reversal in Crushing) rather than a structural margin inflection. With shares +32% YTD, an ~11% pre-print fade signaling nervous positioning, and management likely maintaining (not raising) the $4.15-$4.70 range while flagging an inverted forward crush curve, higher H2 tax rate, and uncertain China soybean flows, the out-period math implies a soft H2. A 'low-quality beat + no raise + cautious 2H' setup drives a sell-the-news reaction that follows through as estimates get trimmed on the second-half caution. |
LOW |