I'll research ADM before writing the preview. Let me pull recent earnings materials, filings, news, and price data.Let me read the most recent earnings materials (Q1 2026 call and release) and the latest 10-Q, plus recent news.Let me get the year-ago Q2 2025 release (comp base), recent news context, and price action.Let me pull the most recent news and the COO announcement detail for context.# ADM (Archer-Daniels-Midland) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview
ADM heads into Q2 as a "beat-and-raise" momentum story that management has explicitly teed up as its swing quarter. Three months ago the company raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $4.15–$4.70 (from $3.60–$4.25) and told investors Q2 would be meaningfully stronger than Q1 — driven by a large mark-to-market reversal, seasonal Nutrition strength, and sustained ethanol margins. The question isn't really whether Q2 is a big year-on-year growth quarter; it's whether the print is clean enough (and the second-half outlook constructive enough) to justify the stock's ~30% YTD run — and, critically, whether management raises guidance again.
| Metric | Q1 2026 (last reported) | Q2 2025 (year-ago comp) |
|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.71 | $0.93 |
| GAAP EPS | $0.62 | $0.45 |
| Total segment operating profit | $764M | $830M |
| AS&O op. profit | $273M | $379M |
| — Crushing | ($79M) loss | $33M |
| Carb Solutions op. profit | $356M | $337M |
| — Vantage Corn Processors (ethanol) | $127M | $33M |
| Nutrition op. profit | $135M | $114M |
Guidance-implied math: Management guided to a ~49%/51% first-half/second-half split. At the ~$4.43 FY midpoint, that implies roughly ~$2.15–2.20 of H1 EPS, and with Q1 already booked at $0.71, that points to a Q2 in the ~$1.40+ range — i.e., up ~50%+ versus the $0.93 year-ago comp. That is a high bar the company itself set, so the risk is as much about quality of the beat as the headline.
Q1 carried ~$275M of net negative mark-to-market/timing impacts (~70% in Crushing), which pushed Crushing to a $79M loss. Management said the majority reverses in Q2, with the remainder in H2. This is worth roughly ~$0.45/share and is the single largest reason Q2 should step up sharply. Watch for Crushing to swing from a Q1 loss back to a healthy profit — but scrutinize whether the underlying crush margin (ex-timing) is genuinely strengthening, not just a paper reversal.
The whole thesis rests on the finalized 2026/2027 RVOs (published March 2026). Management said RINs jumped ~$1, which pulled soybean oil demand, lifted crush margins and drove North American crush rates ~10% above prior year in March. Also key: - 45Z clean fuel credit now expected to add ~$150M for FY2026 (raised from ~$100M) — booked in segment income. - Ethanol was the standout in Q1 (VCP nearly 4x'd YoY to $127M) on strong domestic demand and ~10% YoY export growth. Watch whether $2/gal ethanol's competitiveness vs. >$3.50 RBOB keeps export/blend economics strong through driving season.
Q2 is seasonally Nutrition's strongest quarter (Flavors). Q1 already showed a 42% YoY jump in segment profit. Look for continued momentum from: Flavors, the Decatur East plant recovery (management admits it hasn't fully recovered lost volume/customers yet — a swing factor), the natural colors & flavors shift, and improving Animal Nutrition margins. This is the segment where ADM has the most self-help visibility.
Guidance assumes China resumes normalized North American soybean buying and that biofuel/trade conditions stay constructive. This is the softest assumption in the model. Any commentary on China purchase cadence into Q4, tariffs, or the inverted soy crush curve (which management flagged as signaling H2 uncertainty) will move the stock as much as the Q2 print.
Management framed Q2 as "a very important quarter." A clean beat plus continued biofuels strength would set up another raise; conversely, they were deliberately conservative on the H2 split citing an inverted forward curve, a higher H2 tax rate, and planned reinvestment in R&D/digitization. The guidance revision is the primary catalyst.
ADM has been a strong performer in 2026 — from ~$59 in early January to a peak of ~$87 on July 22 (roughly +48%), largely on biofuels policy clarity and the Q1 beat-and-raise (shares jumped on the May 5 report). But the stock has pulled back ~11% into the print, from $87.32 (Jul 22) to $78.08 (Aug 3), even after running up around the COO announcement. Net-net it's still +~32% YTD.
What this means for the reaction: the recent fade takes some froth out and lowers the setup risk slightly, but expectations remain elevated after the guidance raise. The bar is a strong YoY Q2 and an intact/raised second-half outlook.
Bull case - Big, guidance-consistent Q2 (~$1.40+) as the $275M timing hit reverses and crush margins genuinely inflect higher. - Ethanol strength + 45Z ($150M) + RVO demand persist; another guidance raise. - Nutrition seasonal peak with Decatur East recovery accelerating; potential buyback signal.
Bear case - Beat is "low quality" — mostly mark-to-market reversal, with soft underlying S&S volumes/margins and cost pressure (energy/chemicals) at corn plants persisting. - Cautious H2 commentary: inverted forward crush curve, uncertain China soybean flows, higher H2 tax rate — no raise despite a Q2 beat, which the market could read as a peak. - Elevated valuation after a 30%+ YTD move leaves little room for any China/trade disappointment.
Q2 2026 should be a strong year-on-year growth quarter by design — the mark-to-market reversal alone nearly guarantees a big sequential and YoY jump off the $0.71 Q1 base and the $0.93 year-ago comp. The real signal for investors is in the details: (1) is the crush margin inflection structural (biofuels demand) rather than just a timing snap-back; (2) does ethanol strength and the 45Z benefit hold; and (3) does management raise the $4.15–$4.70 range again while sounding constructive on China and the inverted H2 curve. With shares up big YTD but softening into the report, the setup rewards a clean beat plus a guidance raise, and punishes a "timing-driven" beat paired with cautious second-half language.
Note on timing: Q1 was released ~6:00 a.m. ET with the call at 8:30 a.m. ET; expect a similar cadence for the Aug 4 report.