| ADM |
Report |
Adjusted EPS |
BEAT |
pred ~$1.52 vs. cons $1.42 |
MEDIUM |
| ADM |
Report |
Ag Services & Oilseeds segment revenue |
BEAT |
pred ~$18.0B vs. cons $17.5B |
MEDIUM |
| ADM |
Report |
Total revenue |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$22.6B vs. cons $22.4B |
MEDIUM |
| ADM |
Guide |
FY2026 Adjusted EPS guidance |
BETTER |
guide ~$4.60 (range tightened/raised toward $4.40-$4.80) vs. cons $4.40 (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| ADM |
Guide |
45Z blender's tax credit benefit estimate |
BETTER |
guide ~$175M vs. prior stated $150M (FY2026) |
LOW |
| ADM |
Guide |
Cost-savings program run-rate progress |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$200M cumulative run-rate vs. cons/prior $500-750M multi-year target pace ~$180M (2026 YTD) |
LOW |
| ADM |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+2.0% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| ADM |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
+0.8% (FADE) |
Q1 call already pre-announced the Q2 tailwinds (MTM reversal, Nutrition seasonality, ethanol strength), so much of the beat is pre-priced into the $1.42 consensus and the stock's own ~30% YTD rally; the 10.6% slide from the July 22 high into the print (while SPY rose) signals de-risking/profit-taking that a beat can partially reverse on day 1. But with Street-average PT ($74.8) still below spot ($78) and a Hold-rated consensus, any FY guide raise mostly reflects the flagged MTM/45Z reversal rather than new incremental demand, so analysts are likely to trim H2 crush-margin assumptions (inverted crush curve into 2H26) even after a headline beat, causing the initial pop to fade over the week. |
MEDIUM |