Now I have solid context. Let me write the earnings preview.# ADM (NYSE: ADM) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview Report Date: August 4, 2026 (before market open) | Current Price: ~$78 (as of Aug 3 close)
ADM shares have had a strong 2026, rallying from roughly $59 in early January to a 2026 high of $87.32 on July 22 before pulling back about 10% into the print, closing at $78.08 on August 3. The stock's momentum has been driven largely by improving crush and ethanol margins tied to U.S. biofuels policy clarity, and investors will be watching whether Q2 results and guidance validate the run or trigger a "sell the news" reaction after the recent fade from highs.
Sentiment/valuation backdrop is mixed: UBS raised its price target on ADM to $95 from $90 while maintaining a Buy rating, while broader consensus is more cautious — S&P Global-polled analysts have ADM at a consensus "Hold" rating with an average price target around $74.8.
Per the latest Zacks estimates ahead of the August 4 report: - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ADM's earnings is pegged at $1.42 per share, which indicates growth of 52.7% from the year-ago quarter's reported figure - For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at $22.4 billion, implying 5.7% growth from the year-ago quarter's reported figure - In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 7.6%, and its earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.4%, on average, in the trailing four quarters - However, Archer Daniels currently has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #2, so the model does not conclusively predict a beat this time - By segment, the consensus for Ag Services and Oilseeds segment revenues is $17.5 billion (+8.3% YoY), while Carbohydrate Solutions revenue consensus is $2.9 billion (+0.2% YoY)
ADM's Q1 print (reported May 5) was a beat-and-raise quarter that reset expectations higher for the year: - ADM reported adjusted EPS of $0.71 and total segment operating profit of $764 million for the first quarter of 2026, beating the Zacks consensus of $0.66. - The company raised its full-year adjusted EPS guidance range to $4.15 to $4.70, up from the previous range of $3.60 to $4.25, citing soybean crush and ethanol margins strengthening meaningfully as the market anticipated the finalization of renewable volume obligations (RVOs) for 2026 and 2027, which the EPA published on March 27. - Results included a large non-cash headwind: approximately $275 million of net negative mark-to-market and timing impacts, roughly 70% attributable to crushing. Management guided that the majority of this $275 million is forecasted to reverse in the second quarter — a key tailwind to watch in tomorrow's print. - CFO Monish Patolawala flagged Q2 as directionally stronger: Q2 will be stronger than Q1, driven by the mark-to-market reversal, seasonally higher Nutrition (especially Flavors), and continued strength in ethanol.
Ag Services & Oilseeds: Expected to be the standout segment. Second-quarter results are likely to reflect a significantly improved operating environment, supported by stronger soybean crush margins and healthy export activity, with soybean oil demand benefiting from favorable renewable fuel policy and robust global soybean meal consumption supporting crush economics. Higher North American corn exports and expectations for more normalized soybean purchases from China are also likely to have aided merchandising performance. On China specifically, under the U.S.-China trade deal, China ultimately agreed to purchase 12 million metric tons of soybeans in 2025 and at least 25 million metric tons each year through 2028 — resumption of this buying (after a stoppage during tariff negotiations) is a real swing factor for Ag Services volumes and pricing this quarter.
Carbohydrate Solutions (Ethanol/Starches): Ethanol margins have continued to improve, supported by favorable policy incentives, healthy domestic blending demand and solid export activity, while starches and sweeteners remains under pressure from weak consumer demand — though ethanol strength is expected to more than offset these headwinds. On last quarter's call, management noted ethanol at about $2/gallon remains highly competitive globally versus RBOB trading north of $3.50, and raised its full-year 45Z tax-credit benefit estimate to about $150 million from a prior $100 million.
Nutrition: The segment is likely to maintain its recovery momentum, with higher Flavors sales, continued normalization at Decatur East, and ongoing portfolio optimization expected to support earnings growth. This has been one of the better underlying stories all year — Human Nutrition profit jumped sharply in Q1 on Flavors strength and the Decatur East plant recovery, though management cautioned that full recovery of lost customer volume there "will probably take a while."
Consensus is bracing for a large year-over-year EPS jump (+52.7%) and mid-single-digit revenue growth, largely underwritten by (1) reversal of Q1's ~$275M mark-to-market drag, (2) continued strong crush/ethanol margins following RVO policy clarity, and (3) ongoing Nutrition segment recovery (Flavors, Decatur East). The bar is elevated after a strong Q1 beat-and-raise and a ~30%+ stock rally off January lows, but the stock has already cooled ~10% off its late-July peak, suggesting the market is somewhat de-risked into the print. Key swing factors to watch on the call: the pace/magnitude of the mark-to-market reversal, confirmation that China soybean buying is normalizing per the trade deal, updated full-year guidance commentary (current range $4.15–$4.70), and any additional color from incoming COO Jeff Rowe's mandate on operations and cost execution.