Timing clarification: ADM’s second-quarter release and earnings call are scheduled for Tuesday, August 4, 2026, at 7:30 a.m. Central Time—today, rather than tomorrow.
ADM enters Q2 with a substantially better earnings backdrop than it had a year ago. U.S. biofuel-policy clarity has improved soybean-crush and ethanol economics, Nutrition is recovering, and management raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance sharply after Q1.
The principal complication is accounting timing. Q1 included approximately $275 million of negative mark-to-market and timing impacts, most of which management expected to reverse in Q2. That should make the reported sequential improvement look powerful—but investors will need to separate those reversals from underlying operating momentum.
The stock has already responded to the improved outlook. At $78.08 on August 3, ADM was up roughly 32% year to date, although it had pulled back about 11% from its July 22 high. That creates a higher bar: simply confirming a good Q2 may not be enough without solid second-half guidance.
| Metric | Q1 2026 | Q2 2025 comparison | What matters in Q2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.71 | $0.93 | Likely substantial sequential and year-over-year growth |
| Total segment operating profit | $764M | $830M | MTM reversal should lift AS&O materially |
| Ag Services & Oilseeds profit | $273M | $379M | Crush economics, soybean meal demand and MTM timing |
| Carbohydrate Solutions profit | $356M | $337M | Ethanol strength versus weak starches and sweeteners |
| Nutrition profit | $135M | $114M | Flavors, Decatur East recovery and Animal Nutrition margins |
| Full-year adjusted EPS guidance | $4.15–$4.70 | — | Guidance midpoint and second-half assumptions |
| Adjusted ROIC | 6.4% trailing | 6.9% at Q2 2025 | Whether better earnings begin lifting returns |
A reliable current sell-side consensus was not available in the reviewed materials. Management’s own cadence provides a useful substitute: its Q1 comments suggested approximately 49% of full-year earnings in the first half and 51% in the second half. Applied mechanically to the $4.15–$4.70 guidance range, that implies first-half adjusted EPS of roughly $2.03–$2.30 and therefore Q2 adjusted EPS of about $1.32–$1.59, with approximately $1.46 at the midpoint. This is an inference, not formal quarterly guidance.
Q1’s Ag Services & Oilseeds results understated the strength of the operating environment because rising commodity and processing margins generated approximately $275 million of negative mark-to-market and timing impacts:
Accordingly, Crushing could swing from Q1’s $79 million operating loss to a much stronger profit even before considering changes in underlying margins.
The key analytical question is not simply how much reverses. It is whether new negative timing impacts were created as commodity prices and forward margins continued to move. ADM does not forecast new MTM effects in guidance, so reported results can remain noisy even when the underlying commercial environment is healthy.
What investors should ask:
ADM raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance from $3.60–$4.25 to $4.15–$4.70 after U.S. renewable-volume obligations improved the outlook for both soybean crushing and ethanol.
Higher renewable-fuel demand increases the value of soybean oil and supports crush utilization. In Q1, ADM reported:
Q2 should reveal whether this improvement is durable or was primarily a rapid policy-driven repricing. Soybean meal demand is especially important because high crush rates increase meal supply; strong feed demand is needed to prevent meal weakness from offsetting soybean-oil gains.
Ethanol was already the strongest part of Q1. Carbohydrate Solutions operating profit increased 48%, with Vantage Corn Processors profit rising from $33 million to $127 million.
Management attributed the improvement to:
ADM raised its expected 2026 Section 45Z benefit to approximately $150 million, from an earlier $100 million estimate. Investors should determine how much was recognized in Q2 and whether the full-year estimate has changed.
The macro backdrop cuts both ways. Elevated energy prices can strengthen ethanol’s value as a gasoline blendstock, but they also raise natural-gas, chemical, freight and manufacturing costs across ADM’s network.
The weak spot remains starches and sweeteners. In Q1, volumes were down approximately 3%, with margins declining somewhat more. Management said:
A strong overall Carbohydrate Solutions result is likely, but its quality will depend on whether non-ethanol operations are stabilizing. Continued deterioration in starches and sweeteners would make the segment more dependent on volatile ethanol margins.
Positive signal: Flat-to-improving starch volumes and margins, with ethanol providing incremental upside.
Negative signal: Another decline in core starch and sweetener profitability masked by unusually strong ethanol results.
Nutrition is less exposed to commodity-market timing and therefore offers a cleaner read on ADM’s operating execution.
Q1 segment operating profit increased 42% to $135 million, driven by:
Management also said Q2 is seasonally stronger for Flavors. That creates a favorable setup, but the market will want evidence that improvement is operational rather than primarily currency-related.
Decatur East remains especially important. The plant is operational again, but management acknowledged that recovering customers lost during the extended outage would take time. Commentary on capacity utilization, customer wins and regained volumes may matter more than one quarter’s profit number.
The current $4.15–$4.70 adjusted EPS range is unusually wide. Management’s assumptions include:
A guidance increase would be clearly positive, but the quality of any raise will matter. An increase driven only by Q2 timing reversals would be less valuable than one based on better booked Q3/Q4 margins, stronger Nutrition demand or higher recurring cost savings.
Conversely, merely maintaining guidance could be received cautiously given the favorable Q2 setup. Investors will want to know whether management is preserving room for trade, China, energy and commodity-market volatility or seeing genuine deterioration later in the year.
Q1 cash flow from operations before working capital was $442 million, essentially unchanged year over year. Reported operating cash flow was only $150 million because higher commodity prices increased inventory and working-capital requirements.
Other reference points:
Management previously suggested buybacks could resume as earnings and cash generation improve. With the stock appreciably higher, however, investors should expect ADM to continue prioritizing operating investments, cost-saving projects and leverage management.
The more important issue is whether stronger reported earnings convert into cash and lift ADM’s depressed 6.4% adjusted ROIC.
ADM recently appointed former Syngenta CEO Jeff Rowe to the newly created position of chief operating officer, effective August 17. He will oversee commercial businesses, global manufacturing and R&D.
The appointment reinforces the focus on operational execution, innovation and manufacturing performance. Investors may look for additional explanation of:
The accounting-control narrative has improved: ADM’s Q1 2026 filing concluded that disclosure controls were effective, following the remediation of its earlier segment-reporting material weakness. Nevertheless, shareholder litigation associated with the prior intersegment-accounting investigation remains outstanding and should still be treated as an overhang.
ADM should report a much stronger Q2 than either Q1 2026 or Q2 2025, with the expected reversal of mark-to-market timing effects, robust ethanol economics and improving Nutrition results providing the main support.
But the quarter’s headline EPS will be less important than three underlying answers:
The setup is favorable, but the stock’s year-to-date appreciation means investors are already expecting a good report. The clearest upside catalyst would be strong underlying Q2 execution accompanied by higher—or materially de-risked—full-year guidance.