ADM Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-04

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
ADM Report Adjusted EPS BEAT pred ~$1.56 vs. cons $1.47 MEDIUM
ADM Report Ag Services & Oilseeds segment operating profit BEAT pred ~$535M vs. cons $510M MEDIUM
ADM Report Carbohydrate Solutions segment operating profit BEAT pred ~$385M vs. cons $375M MEDIUM
ADM Guide Full-year adjusted EPS guidance UNCHANGED guide ~$4.43 midpoint vs. cons $4.45 (FY2026) MEDIUM
ADM Guide 45Z segment-income contribution BETTER guide ~$170M vs. cons $155M (FY2026) LOW
ADM Guide 1Q mark-to-market and timing reversal BETTER guide ~$205M reversed vs. cons $190M (2Q2026) MEDIUM
ADM Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.2% MEDIUM
ADM Return 5-day cumulative residual -0.5% (FADE) Day-1 residual +1.2% versus 5-day residual -0.5%: the EPS and segment beats are principally supported by the anticipated timing reversal and strong ethanol economics, while an unchanged ~$4.43 FY2026 guidance midpoint versus ~$4.45 consensus leaves out-period earnings math broadly flat and invites modest estimate trimming after the initial reaction. MEDIUM