Date clarification: Today is Tuesday, August 4, 2026. This preview treats ADM’s 2Q26 report/call as the upcoming event on Wednesday, August 5, 2026; the prompt’s reference to “tomorrow (2026-08-04)” is therefore one day off.
ADM enters 2Q26 with unusually favorable near-term setup: management said in May that 2Q should be stronger than 1Q, supported by reversal of first-quarter mark-to-market/timing headwinds, seasonally better Nutrition results, and continued strength in ethanol. The more consequential issue for the stock is unlikely to be the reported quarterly EPS alone—it is whether management can validate that the uplift in crushing, renewable fuels and ethanol economics is durable enough to support, or raise, its $4.15–$4.70 adjusted-EPS guidance.
The stock has already reflected a meaningful portion of the turnaround narrative: ADM closed at $78.08 on August 3, up about 32% from $59.05 on January 2, though roughly 11% below its July 22 high of $87.32. That positioning raises the bar for commentary on margins, policy benefits and second-half visibility.
In 1Q26, ADM delivered $0.71 adjusted EPS and $764 million of total segment operating profit, despite absorbing approximately $275 million of net negative mark-to-market and timing effects—mostly in Crushing and Refined Products. Those losses arose as commodity and margin conditions strengthened; they were not presented as deterioration in underlying operating performance.
Management explicitly expected:
This means the headline result could be exceptionally strong even without a further increase in underlying margins. Investors should separate:
ADM did not issue formal quarterly EPS guidance. However, management indicated an approximately 49% / 51% first-half / second-half earnings split. Applying that proportion to the full-year adjusted-EPS range, and subtracting 1Q’s $0.71, implies a rough 2Q adjusted EPS range of $1.32–$1.59, with a midpoint near $1.46. This is only a mathematical implication—not company guidance—and depends on the approximate cadence remaining applicable.
That framework explains why simply beating 2Q25’s $0.93 adjusted EPS may not be enough for a positive stock reaction. The market will likely assess results against a much higher earnings cadence embedded in the raised 2026 outlook.
| Segment | 1Q26 operating profit | What to look for in 2Q26 |
|---|---|---|
| Ag Services & Oilseeds | $273M | Realization of mark-to-market reversal; crush-margin durability; soybean meal demand; North American export activity and China demand |
| Carbohydrate Solutions | $356M | Ethanol margins, 45Z contribution, export demand, and whether weakness in starches/sweeteners remains contained |
| Nutrition | $135M | Flavors growth, Decatur East customer recapture, Human Nutrition margins, Animal Nutrition mix/cost progress |
The segment’s 1Q26 profit fell 34% year over year to $273 million, but that obscured a strengthening underlying market. The approximately $275 million of negative timing effects hit Crushing most heavily, with smaller effects in Refined Products and Ag Services.
For 2Q, the core questions are:
ADM said 1Q oilseed processed volumes increased 2% year over year and highlighted robust soybean meal demand. On the call, it also pointed to strong immediate demand for both soybean oil and meal, while cautioning that the forward crush curve was inverted due to uncertainty around trade, energy, crops and policy. The implication: 2Q should benefit from favorable near-term economics, but the second-half margin curve and China demand remain the principal risks to full-year guidance.
Carbohydrate Solutions was ADM’s best-performing major segment in 1Q, with operating profit up 48% year over year to $356 million. Vantage Corn Processors—its dry-mill ethanol operation—earned $127 million, versus $33 million a year earlier.
The backdrop was favorable:
Management also raised its estimated full-year 2026 Section 45Z contribution to roughly $150 million, and indicated that it should be recorded in segment income rather than treated solely as a tax-line benefit.
For the report, the most valuable disclosures would be:
The weakness in liquid sweeteners and starches has not disappeared. It was partly offset in 1Q by ethanol economics, meaning investors should avoid treating segment-level strength as a broad-based recovery in all corn-processing end markets.
Nutrition operating profit increased 42% in 1Q26 to $135 million. Human Nutrition benefited from stronger Flavors sales, foreign-exchange gains and the recovery of the Decatur East plant. Animal Nutrition improved through portfolio actions, greater focus on higher-margin products and cost optimization.
The important nuance is that Decatur East has returned to operating capability, but ADM had not yet recovered its former customer position in full. Management acknowledged that customers had made alternative supply commitments during the extended outage and that winning volume back would take time.
Key 2Q markers:
ADM raised 2026 adjusted EPS guidance in May to $4.15–$4.70, from $3.60–$4.25. The new range rests on three assumptions:
Bull case: ADM reports a large timing reversal, shows that cash crush and ethanol margins remain attractive, captures more 45Z upside, and either raises guidance or communicates greater confidence toward the upper end of the current range.
Base case: ADM delivers a strong 2Q consistent with the expected reversal and reiterates guidance. In that outcome, share performance may hinge on the quality of second-half margin commentary rather than the EPS beat itself.
Bear case: The timing reversal arrives, but management signals deteriorating forward margins, weaker China/export demand, policy uncertainty, or greater consumer softness in starches/sweeteners. That combination could make an apparently strong reported quarter less persuasive to investors.
ADM’s targeted actions are intended to generate more than $500 million of aggregate savings over three to five years beginning in 2025. Investors should look for realized savings, not just targets, especially in manufacturing efficiency, procurement, logistics, automation and transaction costs.
Capital expenditures remain guided to $1.3–$1.5 billion for 2026. Management has also said future buybacks are plausible if cash flows improve, although no repurchases were made in 1Q and 115 million shares remained authorized under the program at March 31.
ADM’s operations are working-capital intensive and commodity-price sensitive. In 1Q, higher commodity prices increased inventory and borrowing needs, while management expected year-end net leverage around 2x. Watch cash generation before working-capital movements, inventory financing, debt levels and the trajectory of net leverage rather than relying solely on reported operating cash flow.
ADM recently appointed Jeff Rowe as Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, effective August 17, 2026. He will oversee commercial businesses, global manufacturing and R&D. The earnings call may offer an early read on how the new COO role fits into ADM’s emphasis on operating execution, cost reduction and growth-platform development.
ADM’s 2Q26 setup is favorable, with a likely boost from the first-quarter timing reversal, strong ethanol economics, 45Z support and Nutrition seasonality. But the quarter’s quality matters more than its headline magnitude.
The highest-value answers from management will be:
A clean 2Q beat with confident second-half commentary could reinforce the earnings-recovery narrative. A strong headline result paired with caution on forward crush curves, trade flows or policy-sensitive margins would be a more mixed outcome for a stock that has already re-rated materially year to date.
Source materials reviewed: ADM 1Q26 earnings release, 1Q26 earnings-call transcript, 1Q26 Form 10-Q, 2Q25 earnings release, July 2026 COO appointment filing, and ADM share-price history through August 3, 2026.