Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview

1. Earnings Preview

Key Takeaway: The setup into Q2 2026 is constructive — consensus is a manageable bar, the majority of Q1’s $275M mark-to-market headwind is expected to reverse in Q2, and the RVO-driven biofuels tailwind is intact. The single biggest swing factor is whether realized crush margins and ethanol EBITDA confirm the policy-driven improvement management guided to.

ADM heads into its Q2 2026 print with a notably improved fundamental backdrop relative to the prior year, yet the bar is not stretched. Management explicitly guided that Q2 would be stronger than Q1, citing three drivers: (1) reversal of the majority of the ~$275M net negative mark-to-market and timing impact from Q1 (roughly 70% attributable to Crushing), (2) seasonal strength in Nutrition — particularly the Flavors product line — and (3) continued ethanol margin strength supported by the 45Z tax credit and finalized 2026–2027 RVOs. Consensus adjusted EPS for Q2 2026 stands at approximately $1.44, up sharply from $0.71 in Q1 2026 and $0.93 in Q2 2025, reflecting the mark-to-market reversal and biofuels tailwind. Estimate revisions have been moving higher since the Q1 print — the Q2 EPS consensus has risen from ~$1.39 at the time of the Q1 earnings call to ~$1.44 currently, suggesting the street is gaining confidence in management’s Q2 setup narrative. The stock has rallied ~16% over the past six months and ~44% over the past twelve months, with the move driven primarily by multiple expansion and estimate upgrades following the RVO finalization in late March 2026 and the Q1 guidance raise. The key wildcard is the magnitude of the mark-to-market reversal and whether realized crush margins in Q2 track the constructive board crush environment — any shortfall there, or a surprise softness in Carbohydrate Solutions (starches & sweeteners remain under pressure), could disappoint a market that has already priced in a meaningful recovery.

2. KPIs & Consensus Expectations

Key Takeaway: Consensus is a manageable but not low bar — the Q2 adjusted EPS estimate of ~$1.44 is the highest quarterly bar in over two years, entirely dependent on the mark-to-market reversal materializing as guided. Crushing segment operating profit is the bigger swing factor: consensus expects ~$256M vs. a Q1 actual of -$79M (which included the bulk of the MTM drag), so any shortfall in realized crush margins would be the most visible miss.

Table 1 — Current Quarter Snapshot (Q2 2026)

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. All consensus figures as of August 3, 2026. Q1 2026 actuals reflect reported figures including mark-to-market and timing impacts. Crushing Q1 2026 actual of -$79M includes approximately $193M of net negative MTM drag (70% of the $275M total). FY2026 guidance range of $4.15–$4.70 raised at Q1 2026 earnings (May 5, 2026).

Table 2 — Beat/Miss History (Last 8 Quarters, Top 2 KPIs)

Adjusted Diluted EPS

Total Segment Operating Profit

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. ADM has beaten adjusted EPS consensus in 5 of the last 8 quarters, with the three misses concentrated in the 2024 period of margin compression; the more recent trend (Q1 2025 through Q1 2026) shows a consistent beat pattern on EPS, though segment operating profit has been more mixed, reflecting mark-to-market volatility.

3. Guidance & Commentary Evolution

Key Takeaway: Guidance has moved materially higher since the Q4 2025 earnings call — the FY2026 adjusted EPS range was raised from $3.60–$4.25 to $4.15–$4.70 at the Q1 2026 print, with the new floor exceeding the prior ceiling. Management tone has shifted from cautious/anticipatory (pending RVO clarity) to confident/constructive (policy clarity confirmed, execution on track). No post-Q1 guidance revisions have been issued.

4. Guidance vs. Estimate Revision Tracker

Key Takeaway: Estimates have moved higher since the Q1 print across all key metrics, tracking management’s raised guidance. The FY2026 consensus EPS of $4.78 now sits 8% above the guidance midpoint of $4.43, suggesting the street is giving ADM credit for execution upside — a gap that represents modest risk if the Q2 mark-to-market reversal disappoints.

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. Estimates have drifted modestly higher since the Q1 print across all key metrics, consistent with management’s constructive Q2 setup commentary. The slight downward revision in Crushing Q2 consensus (from $263M to $256M) may reflect some caution around the magnitude of the MTM reversal, but the direction of revisions overall is positive. The FY2026 EPS consensus of $4.78 running 8% above the guidance midpoint implies the street is pricing in execution upside — a setup that rewards a clean beat but leaves limited room for disappointment.

5. Stock Performance

Key Takeaway: The 12-month rally of ~44% has been driven by a combination of multiple expansion (+10% on EV/EBITDA) and estimate upgrades, with the bulk of the move occurring after the RVO finalization in late March 2026 and the Q1 guidance raise in May 2026. The stock is up ~16% over the past six months and ~4% over the past three months, suggesting the initial re-rating is largely complete and further upside requires earnings delivery.

Source: Stock Performance Decomposition data as of August 3, 2026. NTM = Next Twelve Months. Current NTM EV/EBITDA of 9.96x compares to a 12-month starting multiple of 9.07x, reflecting the re-rating driven by RVO clarity and the guidance raise. The 3-month window shows multiple compression alongside price appreciation, indicating the recent move has been entirely earnings-driven — a healthier and more durable setup than sentiment-driven multiple expansion.

Key Events Since Last Earnings (May 5, 2026):

• May 5, 2026: Q1 2026 earnings beat; FY2026 EPS guidance raised to $4.15–$4.70 from $3.60–$4.25; stock rose modestly in premarket.
• July 23, 2026: ADM appointed Jeff Rowe (former Syngenta CEO) as EVP & COO, effective August 17, 2026 — a significant leadership addition signaling operational focus.

6. Peer Commentary — Q2 2026 Current-Quarter Read-Through

Key Takeaway: Peer commentary from Q2 2026 earnings (reported in the last 60 days) is broadly positive for ADM’s core businesses: Bunge confirmed best-in-six-quarters soy crush margins in Q2, Darling Ingredients reported outstanding renewable diesel performance with an attractive margin outlook, and both cited RVO clarity and robust biofuel demand as durable tailwinds. The read-through to ADM’s Crushing and Carbohydrate Solutions segments is constructive. Caveats are noted where peer-specific factors limit direct applicability.

Note: Only commentary explicitly about Q2 2026 performance or the current operating environment (made within the last 60 days) is included below. Peer views solely on Q3 or FY outlook, or prior-quarter results, are excluded.

Bunge (BG) — Q2 2026 Earnings (Reported July 29, 2026)

Read-Through: Positive

Darling Ingredients (DAR) — Q2 2026 Earnings (Reported July 30, 2026)

Read-Through: Positive

The Andersons (ANDE) — Q2 2026 Earnings (Reported August 3, 2026)

Read-Through: Inconclusive

The Andersons filed its Q2 2026 earnings 8-K on August 3, 2026, but the detailed press release (Exhibit 99.1) was not available for analysis at the time of this preview. ANDE is a direct peer in grain origination, ethanol, and plant nutrients. Any commentary on grain merchandising margins, ethanol economics, or agricultural trade flows would be a relevant read-through for ADM’s Ag Services and Carbohydrate Solutions segments. Investors should monitor ANDE’s Q2 results and management commentary released today for incremental color ahead of ADM’s August 4 call.

Peer Commentary Summary

7. Material News & Developments

Key Takeaway: The most important development since the Q1 print is the appointment of Jeff Rowe as EVP & COO (effective August 17), signaling a deliberate push toward operational excellence and innovation — a positive for execution credibility heading into the print. The broader macro backdrop (tariff uncertainty, China trade dynamics) remains a watch item but has not materially worsened since Q1.

• July 23, 2026 — ADM Appoints Jeff Rowe as EVP & COO (effective August 17, 2026): Rowe joins from Syngenta Group, where he served as CEO since January 2024. He will oversee ADM’s commercial businesses, global manufacturing, and R&D, reporting to CEO Juan Luciano. Rowe brings 30+ years of agricultural industry experience (DuPont Pioneer, Syngenta) and is a fifth-generation farmer. Implication: The creation of a new COO role signals ADM is prioritizing operational discipline and execution — a positive signal for investors focused on the self-help agenda and cost savings delivery. Rowe’s background in AI-powered innovation and sustainable farming aligns with ADM’s decarbonization and precision fermentation growth platforms.
• July 29, 2026 — Bunge (BG) Raises FY2026 EPS Guidance: Bunge raised its annual adjusted EPS outlook to $9.25–$9.75 (from $9.00–$9.50) after Q2 revenue jumped 88% YoY, driven by strong soybean and softseed processing performance. Implication: A direct positive read-through for ADM’s Crushing segment — confirms the RVO-driven crush margin improvement is real and broad-based, not company-specific.
• July 30, 2026 — Darling Ingredients (DAR) Reports Outstanding Q2 Renewable Diesel Results: DGD EBITDA of $389M in Q2 2026 vs. $43M in Q2 2025; $2.23/gallon EBITDA on 350M gallons sold. Management cited an "attractive margin environment for the foreseeable future" supported by RVO clarity through 2027. Implication: Confirms the biofuels policy tailwind is translating into real margin improvement for renewable fuels producers and feedstock suppliers — directly supportive of ADM’s ethanol and soybean oil businesses.
• August 3, 2026 — The Andersons (ANDE) Reports Q2 2026 Earnings: ANDE filed its Q2 2026 earnings 8-K today. Detailed results not yet available. Implication: Monitor for commentary on grain origination margins and ethanol economics as a same-day read-through ahead of ADM’s August 4 call.
• July 24–August 3, 2026 — Ongoing Tariff Uncertainty: New Section 301 tariffs of 10–12.5% on imports from 60+ trading partners took effect July 24, replacing the expired temporary 10% global tariff. Democratic-led states filed suit to block the tariffs. Implication: Tariff uncertainty remains a macro overhang for agricultural trade flows, particularly for China soybean buying patterns. ADM management assumed normalized China buying in its Q2 guidance — any disruption to that assumption is a downside risk.
• June 8, 2026 — Ingredion (INGR) Acquires Tate & Lyle for $3.6B: Ingredion announced the acquisition of Tate & Lyle, targeting $9.9B in combined annual revenue and expanding its "better-for-you" food ingredients business. Shareholder vote cleared July 28, 2026. Implication: Creates a larger, more formidable competitor in the specialty food ingredients space where ADM’s Nutrition segment competes. Medium-term competitive watch item, not an immediate Q2 earnings driver.

8. Insider Transaction Activity

Key Takeaway: No open-market insider purchases or discretionary sales were identified for ADM in the period since the Q1 2026 earnings call (May 5, 2026 through August 3, 2026). The absence of insider selling ahead of a materially raised guidance print is a mild positive signal — insiders are not using the stock’s 44% twelve-month rally as an exit opportunity.

9. Key Risks & Earnings Questions

Key Takeaway: The primary risk into the print is that the mark-to-market reversal is smaller than guided, or that realized crush margins disappoint relative to the constructive board crush environment — either outcome would undercut the consensus EPS of $1.44 and likely pressure the stock given the 44% twelve-month rally already priced in.

Key Risks

Key Questions for Management on the Q2 2026 Call

1. Mark-to-Market Reversal: Can you confirm the magnitude of the MTM reversal that occurred in Q2? Was it in line with the "majority of $275M" guidance, and what is the remaining balance expected to reverse in H2?
2. Crush Margin Realization: How did realized cash crush margins in Q2 compare to board crush? Has the basis divergence (meal and soybean oil basis vs. bean basis) that you described in Q1 begun to converge, and what is your outlook for H2?
3. Ethanol & 45Z: How did ethanol margins track in Q2 relative to Q1? Is the $150M full-year 45Z benefit still the right estimate, and how is it distributed between H1 and H2?
4. China Trade & Ag Services: Did China soybean buying normalize as assumed in your Q2 guidance? How are you thinking about the impact of the new Section 301 tariffs (effective July 24) on North American agricultural export flows in H2?
5. Nutrition Recovery: How did Decatur East customer recovery progress in Q2? Are you seeing the expected seasonal Flavors strength, and what is the trajectory for full customer re-engagement?
6. FY2026 Guidance Confidence: Given the FY2026 EPS consensus of $4.78 is running 8% above your guidance midpoint of $4.43, are you comfortable with the current street estimates, or is there a reason to narrow or update the range?
7. Jeff Rowe / COO Role: What are the immediate priorities for the new COO role, and how does this change the organizational structure and decision-making for commercial and manufacturing operations?
8. SRE / RVO Outlook: What is your current read on the Small Refinery Exemption (SRE) risk for 2026–2027 RVOs, and how are you thinking about the Set 3 biofuel policy (2028–2029) timeline?