| AFL |
Report |
Adjusted EPS (Q2'26) |
BEAT |
pred ~$1.80 vs. cons $1.77 |
MEDIUM |
| AFL |
Report |
Total adjusted revenue (Q2'26) |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$4.20B vs. cons $4.19B |
MEDIUM |
| AFL |
Report |
Japan pretax profit margin / benefit ratio |
BEAT |
pred benefit ratio ~61.5% vs. cons/guide ~62.5% (favorable, better margin ~34-35% vs ~33%) |
MEDIUM |
| AFL |
Guide |
FY2026 adjusted EPS trajectory (implicit) |
LOWER |
guide/implied ~$7.00 vs. cons $7.07 (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| AFL |
Guide |
Japan underlying earned premium (FY2026) |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~-1% to -2% vs. cons ~-1.5% (FY2026) |
HIGH |
| AFL |
Guide |
Japan benefit ratio (FY2026 range) |
UNCHANGED |
guide 60-63% vs. cons ~62% (FY2026) |
HIGH |
| AFL |
Guide |
U.S. benefit ratio (FY2026 range) |
UNCHANGED |
guide 48-52% vs. cons ~49% (FY2026); Q2 likely ~48-49% normalizing up from 47.2% |
MEDIUM |
| AFL |
Guide |
Capital return / Q2 buyback pace |
UNCHANGED |
pred ~$1.0B returned (~$0.8-1.0B buyback + $0.36 div) vs. cons ~$1.0B (Q2'26) |
MEDIUM |
| AFL |
Guide |
Japan sales growth (yen) vs tough comp |
LOWER |
pred ~+5-8% vs. cons ~+10% (Q2'26, lapping +23.2%) |
LOW |
| AFL |
Guide |
Q3'26 assumption unlock / external reinsurance sizing |
UNKNOWN |
guide n/a vs. cons n/a (Q3'26 net premium ratio reset); directional read only |
LOW |
| AFL |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-1.5% |
— |
LOW |
| AFL |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-3.0% (FADE) |
Even with a modest EPS beat driven by favorable (and management-flagged transient) benefit-ratio tailwinds, the out-period math is negative: Japan underlying earned premium still shrinking (-1% to -2%), FY26 consensus (~$7.07) already implies a ~5.6% decline and drifts lower as benefit ratios normalize toward guide, an FX/yen translation headwind persists, and the Q3 assumption-unlock overhang plus CRE/cyber wildcards cap upside. Stock is near all-time highs (~$126, +14% YTD) and priced for clean execution, so a low-quality beat fades as estimates get trimmed. |
LOW |