| AFL |
Report |
Adjusted diluted EPS |
BEAT |
pred ~$1.79 vs. cons $1.77 |
MEDIUM |
| AFL |
Report |
Total revenue |
MISS |
pred ~$4.10B vs. cons $4.20B |
LOW |
| AFL |
Report |
Aflac U.S. benefit ratio |
BEAT |
pred ~48.3% vs. cons 49.2% |
MEDIUM |
| AFL |
Guide |
FY2026 adjusted EPS outlook |
BETTER |
guide ~$7.10 vs. cons $7.07 (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| AFL |
Guide |
Japan segment benefit ratio range (reaffirmed 60%-63%) |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~61.5% vs. cons 61.5% (FY2026) |
HIGH |
| AFL |
Guide |
Japan FY2026 sales trajectory toward flat in-force premium (~¥80B target) |
BETTER |
guide ~¥79B vs. cons/prior-year ¥74B (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| AFL |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+1.2% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| AFL |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
+0.4% (FADE) |
An EPS print modestly above consensus (helped by continued U.S. benefit-ratio favorability that management itself has called 'volatile quarter-to-quarter') is likely to spark an initial pop, but the tougher yen comp mechanically depresses reported Japan premiums/investment income and full-year revenue is still tracking a high-single-digit decline. As sell-side desks normalize the non-recurring reserve/benefit-ratio favorability and re-anchor on FX-driven out-period EPS math (FY26 consensus already down ~5.6% y/y from 2025's record), initial enthusiasm should partially fade over the week, especially after a 27% YTD run that leaves the stock vulnerable to profit-taking absent a clear, durable Japan earned-premium inflection data point. |
MEDIUM |