{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted diluted EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.79 vs. cons $1.77",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Total revenue",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$4.10B vs. cons $4.20B",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Aflac U.S. benefit ratio",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~48.3% vs. cons 49.2%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 adjusted EPS outlook",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$7.10 vs. cons $7.07 (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Japan segment benefit ratio range (reaffirmed 60%-63%)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~61.5% vs. cons 61.5% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Japan FY2026 sales trajectory toward flat in-force premium (~\u00a580B target)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~\u00a579B vs. cons/prior-year \u00a574B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 1.2,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 0.4,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "An EPS print modestly above consensus (helped by continued U.S. benefit-ratio favorability that management itself has called 'volatile quarter-to-quarter') is likely to spark an initial pop, but the tougher yen comp mechanically depresses reported Japan premiums/investment income and full-year revenue is still tracking a high-single-digit decline. As sell-side desks normalize the non-recurring reserve/benefit-ratio favorability and re-anchor on FX-driven out-period EPS math (FY26 consensus already down ~5.6% y/y from 2025's record), initial enthusiasm should partially fade over the week, especially after a 27% YTD run that leaves the stock vulnerable to profit-taking absent a clear, durable Japan earned-premium inflection data point.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}