AFL Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-06

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
AFL Report Adjusted EPS (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~$1.80 vs. cons $1.77 MEDIUM
AFL Report Aflac Japan sales (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~¥21.0B vs. cons ¥20.5B MEDIUM
AFL Report Aflac U.S. net earned premium growth (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~3.5% vs. cons 3.4% MEDIUM
AFL Guide Aflac Japan sales outlook BETTER guide ~¥80B vs. cons ¥79B (FY2026) MEDIUM
AFL Guide Aflac Japan benefit ratio UNCHANGED guide ~61.5% midpoint vs. cons 61.5% (FY2026) HIGH
AFL Guide Aflac U.S. pretax margin LOWER guide ~18.5% midpoint vs. cons 19.2% (FY2026) MEDIUM
AFL Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.6% LOW
AFL Return 5-day cumulative residual +0.4% (FADE) Day-1 residual ~+1.6% fades to a five-day cumulative residual of ~+0.4% because the expected EPS and Japan-sales beats support the initial move, but unchanged underwriting ranges and an approximately 18.5% U.S. margin outlook versus 19.2% consensus limit out-period estimate revisions. MEDIUM