AFL Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-06

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
AFL Report Adjusted EPS BEAT pred ~$1.88 vs. cons $1.84 MEDIUM
AFL Report Aflac Japan total benefit ratio BEAT pred ~61.5% vs. cons 62.2% MEDIUM
AFL Report Aflac Japan new annualized premium sales BEAT pred ~¥21.6B vs. cons ¥21.0B MEDIUM
AFL Guide Aflac Japan full-year sales aspiration BETTER guide ~¥80B vs. cons ¥79.5B (FY2026) MEDIUM
AFL Guide Aflac Japan benefit ratio UNCHANGED guide ~61.5% vs. cons 61.5% (FY2026) HIGH
AFL Guide Aflac U.S. benefit ratio UNCHANGED guide ~50.0% vs. cons 50.0% (FY2026) HIGH
AFL Guide Aflac Japan underlying earned-premium growth UNCHANGED guide ~-1.5% vs. cons -1.5% (FY2026) MEDIUM
AFL Guide Aflac Japan cyber-incident cost and operating-impact commentary BETTER guide ~$10M vs. cons $20M (2H2026) LOW
AFL Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.2% MEDIUM
AFL Return 5-day cumulative residual +0.5% (STABILIZE) A modest EPS and Japan-sales beat (~$1.88 vs. $1.84 and ~¥21.6B vs. ¥21.0B) is likely offset by largely unchanged FY2026 benefit-ratio and underlying-premium guidance (~61.5% vs. 61.5% and ~-1.5% vs. -1.5%), limiting out-period estimate revisions after an initially positive reaction. MEDIUM