AFL Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-06

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
AFL Report Adj. EPS (Diluted Operating) BEAT pred ~$1.80 vs. cons $1.765 MEDIUM
AFL Report Japan New Premiums (¥B) BEAT pred ~¥21.5B vs. cons ¥20.96B MEDIUM
AFL Report Japan Benefit Ratio (%) MISS pred ~62.5% vs. cons 61.77% MEDIUM
AFL Guide Japan Benefit Ratio FY2026 (FY2026) UNCHANGED guide 60-63% reiterated vs. cons 62.07% HIGH
AFL Guide U.S. Benefit Ratio FY2026 (FY2026) UNCHANGED guide 48-52% reiterated vs. cons 48.43% HIGH
AFL Guide Japan FY2026 Sales (FY2026) UNCHANGED guide ~JPY 80B reiterated vs. cons JPY 79.0B MEDIUM
AFL Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -2.0% MEDIUM
AFL Return 5-day cumulative residual -3.0% (FADE) FADE — sell-side trims H2 estimates on Japan benefit ratio miss; short covering limits day-1 damage but does not reverse the trend MEDIUM