| AIG |
Report |
Adjusted EPS (Q2'26) |
BEAT |
pred ~$1.99 vs. cons $1.92 |
MEDIUM |
| AIG |
Report |
GI accident-year combined ratio ex-cat |
BEAT |
pred ~88.0% vs. cons ~88.4% |
MEDIUM |
| AIG |
Report |
General Insurance NPW growth (comparable, constant $) |
BEAT |
pred ~+13% vs. cons ~+10% |
MEDIUM |
| AIG |
Guide |
FY2026 NPW growth guide |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~low-to-mid teens (~13%) vs. cons ~11% (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| AIG |
Guide |
GI expense ratio target |
BETTER |
guide ~29% vs. cons <30% target (FY2027) |
MEDIUM |
| AIG |
Guide |
Capital return / buyback pace (Corebridge exit funding) |
BETTER |
guide ~$1.5B+/qtr buyback vs. cons ~$0.9B (2H2026) |
LOW |
| AIG |
Guide |
Catastrophe losses (Q2 weather season) |
UNKNOWN |
guide ~$250M vs. cons ~$200M (Q2'26) |
LOW |
| AIG |
Guide |
Global Personal combined ratio |
BETTER |
guide ~91% vs. cons 94% target (FY2027) |
MEDIUM |
| AIG |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+1.5% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| AIG |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-0.5% (FADE) |
A modest headline beat is likely, but the quality debate (beats leaning on low cats and favorable PYD, softening NA property pricing -11% and flat-to-down financial lines) caps upside. Out-period math is unfavorable: mix shift toward casualty lifts the AY loss ratio and forward estimates get nudged lower even after a beat, so an initial pop tends to fade over the week absent a clean underlying-margin/buyback surprise. |
LOW |