{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EPS (Q2'26)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.99 vs. cons $1.92",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "GI accident-year combined ratio ex-cat",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~88.0% vs. cons ~88.4%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "General Insurance NPW growth (comparable, constant $)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~+13% vs. cons ~+10%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 NPW growth guide",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~low-to-mid teens (~13%) vs. cons ~11% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "GI expense ratio target",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~29% vs. cons <30% target (FY2027)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Capital return / buyback pace (Corebridge exit funding)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$1.5B+/qtr buyback vs. cons ~$0.9B (2H2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Catastrophe losses (Q2 weather season)",
      "prediction": "UNKNOWN",
      "answer": "guide ~$250M vs. cons ~$200M (Q2'26)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Global Personal combined ratio",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~91% vs. cons 94% target (FY2027)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 1.5,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -0.5,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "A modest headline beat is likely, but the quality debate (beats leaning on low cats and favorable PYD, softening NA property pricing -11% and flat-to-down financial lines) caps upside. Out-period math is unfavorable: mix shift toward casualty lifts the AY loss ratio and forward estimates get nudged lower even after a beat, so an initial pop tends to fade over the week absent a clean underlying-margin/buyback surprise.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}