I'll research AIG before writing the preview. Let me start by gathering recent filings, earnings transcripts, and news.Let me read the most recent earnings materials and get recent news and stock performance.Let me get the year-ago Q2 2025 release for comparison, recent news, and stock price.Let me get recent AIG news and analyst estimates for the upcoming quarter.I now have what I need. Here's the earnings preview.
AIG heads into Q2 on a hot streak — it beat consensus in each of the last four quarters and posted its "strongest first quarter since [Peter Zaffino has] been at AIG" in Q1 — but the stock has lagged, down roughly 5% year-to-date versus a ~13% gain for the S&P 500. This is the first quarter reported entirely under new CEO Eric Andersen (who took over June 1), and the debate is no longer about the turnaround story; it's about whether disciplined growth (Everest/Convex, reinsurance tailwinds) can outrun a visibly softening property and financial lines market.
Year-ago (Q2 2025) baseline to measure against: | Metric | Q2 2025 | |---|---| | Adjusted after-tax income / diluted share | $1.81 | | General Insurance NPW | $6.9B (–1% reported, +1% comparable) | | GI combined ratio | 89.3% | | GI accident-year combined ratio (adj.) | 88.4% | | Catastrophe losses | $170M (2.9 pts) | | Capital returned | $2.0B ($1.8B buybacks + $254M dividends) | | Core operating ROE | 11.7% |
Q1 was explosive: NPW +18% constant-dollar (Global Commercial +21%, Global Personal +11%), with North America Commercial up 36% driven by the Everest renewal-rights deal, the Convex whole-account quota share, and favorable 1/1 reinsurance economics. Management reiterated low-to-mid-teens full-year 2026 NPW growth. The question for Q2: how much of that growth is organic versus transaction/reinsurance-driven, and whether Everest retention and loss ratios are still tracking "within expected range." Net premiums earned (+5% in Q1) is expected to accelerate in 2H26 — watch for that inflection to begin.
Zaffino spent much of Q1 pre-empting property concerns. Key data points to re-check: - North America property pricing was down 11% in Q1; International property down 4%. - AIG is deliberately shrinking the Lexington large-account shared-and-layered E&S book (<10% of its $6.5B global property portfolio; new business already down 19%) and said contraction should continue "throughout the year if the current market environment persists." - Casualty is the offset — Retail Excess Casualty pricing +14%, Lexington Casualty +8%. But watch for management's read on whether "cracks in casualty" pricing are emerging (a topic analysts pressed on in Q1). - U.S. Financial Lines/D&O pricing was flat-to-down — a continued drag.
The mix shift toward casualty and away from property is expected to push the accident-year loss ratio modestly higher (it rose ~50 bps in NA Commercial in Q1). Management's thesis: expense-ratio improvement and earned-premium growth more than offset it.
Q1 flattered results with unusually low cats ($180M vs. $525M a year earlier) and $132M of favorable prior-year development. Q2 is the start of a heavier weather season. The year-ago Q2 cat load was $170M (2.9 pts). Any elevated cat activity or, conversely, another quarter of favorable reserve releases (U.S. property, financial lines have been the sources) will drive the beat/miss. Also watch U.S. Excess Casualty, which showed adverse development in Q2 2025 — a key social-inflation watch item.
GI expense ratio improved 120 bps to 29.3% in Q1; the Investor Day goal is sub-30% by 2027 (arguably already there). Management guided to think about it on a trailing-12-month, year-over-year basis, not sequentially, given seasonality. Continued operating leverage here is the main defense against loss-ratio mix pressure.
This was the standout in Q1: accident-year combined ratio improved 570 bps to 89.9%, with the calendar-year CR down ~18 points to 89.4% (vs. the messy 107.9% a year ago). The Investor Day target is a 94% combined ratio by 2027 — Q1 already ran below that, so watch whether High-Net-Worth/A&H growth and improved reinsurance/commission terms hold.
AIG returned $760M in Q1 (a step down from the ~$2.0B/quarter pace of 2025) and raised the dividend 11% to $0.50 (4th straight year of double-digit hikes). The key catalyst: AIG's Corebridge stake was down to ~5.6%, and management intends to fully exit in 2026, with proceeds funding additional buybacks. Watch for updated buyback pace/authorization, parent liquidity, and the ~17.7% debt-to-adjusted-capital leverage. With shares below tangible book-ish levels and lagging the market, buyback intensity matters a lot for EPS.
First full quarter with Eric Andersen as CEO; Zaffino is now Executive Chairman. Andersen has signaled continuity — "drive hard on the existing strategy." Watch for any subtle change in tone on M&A/capital deployment (Brian Meredith pressed on excess capital in Q1). Separately, the AI story (Palantir Foundry + Anthropic's Claude for underwriting/claims, "AIG Assist") is a growing part of the narrative — management cited a 55% reduction in time-to-quote in Lexington middle-market. It's a long-dated efficiency thesis; expect qualitative updates, not yet a quantified P&L benefit ("could be '27, '28").
GI net investment income rose 17% in Q1 on higher reinvestment yields (new money ~80 bps above roll-off), but alternative/private-equity returns were weak (1.6%, reported on a one-quarter lag) and management flagged 2Q alts would "remain below expectations." Other Operations NII was guided to just $30–40M in Q2 as parent liquidity and Corebridge dividends fall. Core fixed-income growth is the reliable engine; alts are the wildcard.
The setup is asymmetric on sentiment: expectations are for only ~6% EPS growth, the stock has underperformed badly YTD (though it has rallied from ~$72 in early June to ~$80), and AIG has a habit of beating. A clean beat with continued expense discipline, on-track Everest/Convex integration, an accelerated Corebridge sell-down feeding buybacks, and manageable cats would support a re-rating. The risks to watch that could sour the print: worsening property/financial-lines pricing, casualty reserve/pricing cracks, a heavier cat quarter, and soft alternative-investment income. Given how much Q1 leaned on low cats and favorable development, focus on the underlying accident-year margins and net earned premium trajectory rather than the headline number.
Note: figures above are drawn from AIG's Q1 2026 and Q2 2025 disclosures and management commentary; consensus estimates and stock performance are from recent public sources and market data as of Aug 5, 2026.