AIG Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-06

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
AIG Report Adjusted EPS (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~$1.98 vs. cons $1.92 MEDIUM
AIG Report General Insurance calendar-year combined ratio (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~88.0% vs. cons ~89.3% MEDIUM
AIG Report General Insurance NPW growth, constant-dollar (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~16% vs. cons ~13% MEDIUM
AIG Guide FY2026 adjusted EPS outlook BETTER guide ~$8.10 vs. cons $8.00 (FY2026) LOW
AIG Guide FY2026 General Insurance NPW growth guidance BETTER guide ~mid-teens 15% vs. cons low-to-mid-teens 12% (FY2026) MEDIUM
AIG Guide Other Operations core NII guide (Q3 2026) UNCHANGED guide ~$35M vs. cons $35M (Q3 2026) LOW
AIG Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.8% MEDIUM
AIG Return 5-day cumulative residual +2.5% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) A likely EPS/combined-ratio beat plus reiterated-or-raised FY26 NPW growth guidance and accelerated buyback (Corebridge proceeds now fully deployable) should push consensus EPS revisions higher over the following days rather than fade, since the out-period math (Everest/Convex accretion continuing, expense ratio structurally below 30%, dividend growth) supports durable estimate upgrades; the main fade risk is if property-market softness/casualty reserve commentary reintroduces mix-shift concerns, but base case is follow-through given the multi-quarter beat streak and improving capital-return story. MEDIUM