Report date: After market close, Thursday, August 6, 2026 | Call: Friday, August 7, 2026, 8:30 a.m. ET Stock (as of 8/5/26 close): ~$80.14, roughly flat over the past year and modestly below its 52-week high near $87
Consensus estimates cluster around adjusted EPS of ~$1.89–$1.94 (vs. $1.81 in Q2 2025) on revenue of roughly $7.2–$7.25 billion. One tracked estimate pegged adjusted EPS at $1.93, up 6.6% year-over-year, and full-year 2026 adjusted EPS is expected near $8.00, up from $7.09 in 2025. AIG has beaten consensus in each of the last four quarters, so the bar carries some built-in optimism, but analysts have also trimmed estimates modestly into the print, with one tracker noting "recent estimates show a slight downward revision" ahead of the release. Sell-side sentiment is mixed-to-positive: consensus ratings run from Hold to Buy depending on the source, with price targets generally in the $85–$90 range (JPMorgan recently raised its target to $90; Wells Fargo sits at Equal-Weight with an $86 target).
AIG opened 2026 with what management called its best first quarter in years. Adjusted after-tax income per share was $2.11, up 80% year-over-year, underwriting income more than tripled to $774 million, and Core Operating ROE hit 12.2%. General Insurance net premiums written grew 18% on a constant-dollar basis, and the calendar-year combined ratio improved 850bps to 87.3%. That result was flattered by very light catastrophe losses ($180 million) and $132 million of favorable prior-year reserve development, plus outsized NPW growth from reinsurance restructuring (including the Everest renewal-rights book) — so investors will be watching whether Q2's underlying (ex-CAT, ex-PYD) trends confirm that the improvement is structural rather than one-off.
Q2 2025's comparison base was also strong: last year AIG posted $1.81 adjusted EPS, an 89.3% combined ratio, $626 million of underwriting income, and returned $2.0 billion to shareholders (including $1.8 billion of buybacks) — a big capital-return quarter that sets a tough comp for this year's buyback pace.
a) Property market softness vs. casualty resilience. On the Q1 call, management flagged that large-account, shared-and-layered U.S. E&S property (Lexington) is under significant rate pressure and that AIG is deliberately shrinking that book, while international property, retail property, and Lexington middle-market property continue to perform well (historically low-70s to 70s combined ratios). Watch for confirmation that this contraction continued into Q2, and any signs (as one executive flagged) of "cracks" emerging in casualty pricing/terms.
b) Global Personal Insurance turnaround. This segment swung from a 107.9% combined ratio a year ago to 89.4% in Q1 2026, with the accident-year combined ratio improving 570bps to 89.9%. Investor Day guidance calls for further improvement to 94% by 2027 (already achieved), so the question is how much more room there is and whether the momentum (repricing, expense discipline, better commission terms in High Net Worth) is sustained.
c) Everest and Convex integration. AIG has been converting a large renewal-rights book from Everest and closed a 35% stake in Convex Group (plus a 9.9% Onex stake) on February 6, 2026. Q1 showed these deals driving outsized NPW growth (North America Commercial NPW +36% y/y) with loss ratios "in line with what AIG's business has performed." Q2 should show a fuller quarter of contribution — key is whether retention (~88-89% in Q1) and margins on the converted book stayed on track.
d) Catastrophe losses. Industry catastrophe activity in Q2 2026 was elevated in spots — a stretch of U.S. severe convective storms, hail and tornado activity drove billions in insured losses, and peer Allstate reported $1.72 billion of Q2 catastrophe losses. However, broader tallies suggest 2026 cat losses have generally tracked below historical averages for the year to date, with one report noting H1 U.S. severe-convective-storm losses were running below the prior year's pace. AIG's low net-retention reinsurance strategy (enhanced at the January 1 renewal) should continue to dampen its net cat exposure relative to gross activity — a dynamic worth confirming again this quarter.
e) Capital return and the Corebridge exit. AIG completed the sale of its remaining Corebridge Financial stake in early May 2026 — roughly 25 million shares for about $710 million in net proceeds, fully exiting a position that had been on a multi-year wind-down. With that overhang gone and management having said proceeds would go primarily to buybacks, Q2 capital return (Q1 was $760 million: $519 million buybacks, $241 million dividends) should be a focal point, alongside the 11% dividend increase to $0.50/share that took effect this quarter.
f) Leadership transition. June 1, 2026 marked Eric Andersen's formal transition to CEO (with Peter Zaffino moving to Executive Chair) after joining as President in February. This is effectively Andersen's first full quarter as CEO, so listen for any early signals on capital deployment priorities, M&A appetite, or strategic emphasis beyond reaffirming the existing Investor Day framework.
g) Investment income. Q1 saw core fixed-income NII up nearly 20% y/y on higher reinvestment yields (new money yield running ~80bps above sales/maturities, portfolio yield of 4.61%), while alternative investment returns were soft (1.6% in Q1) and management guided Other Operations NII to just $30–40 million for Q2 given lower parent liquidity and the shrinking Corebridge dividend stream. Confirm whether alternatives recovered and whether fixed-income tailwinds persisted.
Management has reaffirmed these multi-year targets, and each quarter's results are being measured against them: - Operating EPS CAGR of >20% through 2027 - Core Operating ROE of 10–13% - General Insurance expense ratio below 30% (Q1 2026 was already at 29.3%) - Global Personal Insurance combined ratio of 94% by 2027 (already beaten in Q1 at 89.4%) - Low-to-mid-teens General Insurance NPW growth for full-year 2026 - ~10%+ annual dividend growth (delivered via the 11% Q2 hike)
Given AIG's track record of beating estimates and the multiple tailwinds in place (falling cat losses relative to gross exposure via reinsurance, Everest/Convex accretion, buyback firepower from the completed Corebridge exit), the setup into Thursday's print looks constructive, though the stock's muted 52-week performance versus the broader market suggests investors want to see the "quality" of growth — sustainable margins, not just NPW driven by deal-related noise — validated in the numbers and on the call.